This follows previous contacts between
Iranian officials and members of Trump’s team before and after the election. At the same time as the
news was released, the visit of the Advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Larijani, came to Beirut to meet with officials. He was the one who said a few days ago that it was necessary to deal rationally with the Iranian response mechanism to the Israeli strike, asking not to fall into Israel’s trap.
American efforts and Israeli demands
This move from Iran coincided with intensified American efforts to achieve a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. According to diplomatic sources, the
United States of America notified Lebanese officials a few days ago that a cease-fire agreement must be concluded without contact between the Lebanese and Gaza fronts. This decision was made by the
United States and must be implemented, to prevent the Israelis from continuing their military operations. At the same time, the Americans are making intensive efforts with Israel to push it to a ceasefire with Lebanon, in an agreement between the Biden administration and the
Trump team, which wants to achieve a diplomatic achievement by getting its -into the White House. Therefore, the Israelis strengthened their military operations to take advantage of the weeks between Trump’s assumption of power. The Israelis are betting on improving their military position to improve their negotiating conditions, especially since Netanyahu wants, after ending the war in Lebanon, to devote himself to the West Bank. He can accept a truce in Lebanon as a gift to the Americans in exchange for another gift, namely his support in annexing the West Bank and support for the generals’ draft plan to he is acting in the Gaza Strip.
Berri-Hochstein
On this basis, negotiations moved strongly. According to follow-up sources, Hockstein contacted President Nabih Berri’s team last Wednesday, and discussions were held on several points. Hockstein and Berri’s team emphasized the need to make progress to make the trip to Lebanon and Israel worthwhile. In the call, some points were discussed and how to put them together in the text of the agreement, in a way that ensures consistency with Resolution 1701, especially with regard to some points that are still not pay After Israel insisted on freedom of movement in southern Lebanon, if the agreement was broken with Hezbollah and it took military action or brought in members military, Lebanon completely opposed this condition, and emphasized that it was up to him to deal with it. this issue. The point agreed in the new wording is that if there is any breach of the agreement by the party, the Lebanese Army will handle the matter, and the Army alone will ‘ decision-making by the army and the weapons carrier in the south together with the
international emergency forces.
Israeli conditions
There are lingering doubts in Lebanon about Israel’s position on the freedom of movement situation. How Israel still wants to intervene whenever it wants. Israel wants to get a written commitment between it and the Americans on this point. The Israelis are also emphasizing the issue of preventing the entry of weapons to Hezbollah from Syria through legal and illegal crossings, and preventing members of army to enter from the sea, while there is a clear tension in the measures that will be followed to prevent this.
As for the second sticking point, it was an Israeli attempt by the Americans to expand the scope of the work of the
International Committee of Inquiry for the implementation of Resolution 1701. Israel wanted
Germany and Great Britain to be among them, along with America,
France, Israel, Lebanon, and a UNIFIL representative. But Lebanon refused to expand the committee, and they agreed that there would be five parties: America,
France, Lebanon, Israel, and a representative of UNIFIL.
Creating understanding
In this context, and to discuss these points, US Ambassador Lisa Johnson visited Berri in Ain al-Tineh on Thursday, and discussed the draft with him. It is also expected that Hockstein will make new contact with the Speaker of the Parliament in the next forty-eight hours, after Berri discussed the matter with Hezbollah. According to diplomatic and Lebanese sources, if all these points and formulas are agreed, an understanding can be reached within a week. According to the information, the agreement specifies a complete ceasefire, while the conditions for the entry of the army to the south, the date of the return of the population, the withdrawal of the Israelis , and the treatment of Hezbollah’s infrastructure are resolved, while a period of 60 days is a test of the practical path to a solution.
According to sources close to the party, he says he is open to discussing proposals, emphasizing the rejection of high-level Israeli positions, such as freedom of movement of weapons. But he is open to Lebanon’s proposals to put it together, and that there are many points that require in-depth study. However, the party does not reject the truce completely, and they are still betting on his field ability to improve their negotiating conditions, according to what he told Berri.
Iranian way
But more importantly, this path of openness to truce efforts cannot be separated from Iran’s path. It is true that Larijani’s visit is Iran’s confirmation of his presence, and it is true that the terms of the agreement were discussed with him. This is a clear indication of Iran’s role in this path, amid Iran’s efforts to avoid war and avoid further escalation.
Diplomatic sources report that Tehran knows that the tide is very high, and that if a ceasefire is not reached, the war will expand and escalate, and Israel will receive significant support from America to lead more strikes against Hezbollah and weaken it, while Iran does not want the party to weaken further, it does not want the war to expand towards it.
This is an integral part of Larijani’s visit to Beirut, who is an adviser to the leader of the Islamic Republic. Larijani’s move is inseparable from the move of Iran’s ambassador to New York, Amir Irani, who, by the way, is an influential diplomat and has the status of a decision-maker, as he is directly connected to the office of the High Leader, and he is the one who led the negotiations with the Saudis in Iraq and prepared the way for the Beijing agreement.
