To denigrate democracy is to create an image of a crazy politician who is voted for by crazy citizens –

Juha Ristamäki

Fortunately, the Trump hysteria has not infected the Finnish government, writes Juha Ristamäki.

Yesterday at 19:01 (updated yesterday at 21:18)

Donald Trump is seeking a return to the White House. AOP

Watching the US presidential elections is also very interesting from the point of view of what kind of expectations are placed on the elections in Europe and Finland.

If you simplify the matter, the European and Finnish “elite” and the media are strongly on the side of choosing the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, is painted as some kind of irrational freak.

In the name of truth, of course, it must be said that Trump’s populist rhetoric sometimes rises to its own spheres, but otherwise the setting is false.

In 2016, when Trump became president of the United States, almost 63 million Americans voted for him. Now, in the upcoming elections, on November 5, he will be voted for by the same number of people – it is already an insult to democracy to try to create an image of a crazy politician who is voted for by crazy citizens.

What kind of effects did Trump’s previous term have on matters important to Europe and Finland, security and the economy?

Despite the tough NATO talks, Trump’s United States strengthened its contribution to European security. The Trump administration also started arms aid to Ukraine.

The economy was moving towards protectionism, but that would probably have happened regardless of who was in the White House. Republicans favor tariffs, Democrats favor subsidies for their own industry.

Of course, US voters do not make their choice from a European point of view, but the most important things for them are their own wallet and the country’s internal security.

In these matters, Trump is reasonably strong, because the Biden-Harris administration has been disappointed due to high inflation, and Trump has represented a harder line when it comes to US internal security.

So how are the elections going? The analytics company Accuscore has made its first prediction for Iltalehti – it is based on predicting the result of each state based on simulation models.

Currently, Accuscore predicts that Trump would win the election: according to the forecast, he would get 296 electors, Harris 242. The situation is extremely exciting: if Kamala Harris were to turn Michigan and Pennsylvania behind, for example, she would become president.

Fortunately, the Trump hysteria has not infected the Finnish government. President Alexander Stubb has emphasized that it is worth keeping a cool head in this matter as well.

Stubb rightly assesses that the United States needs its allies if it wants to be a great power.

In Finnish, it means that the United States is not leaving NATO or Europe, but is putting strong pressure on European countries to do more for their own defense. The United States will demand that NATO countries increase defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP.

This is ahead, whether Trump or Harris is president. What is also ahead is how Europe will be able to respond to the massive US support for its own companies.

Europe and Finland must understand that Russia is not a hegemonic challenge for the United States, as the Soviet Union once was.

Instead, China is. From the US point of view, it would be good to get the war in Ukraine off the agenda, so that Russia does not slip into China’s arms once and for all.

In terms of how to end the war in Ukraine, Trump probably has a more straightforward approach than Harris, but the goal is the same for both, because the threat is a confrontation with China.

The keys to Finland’s security are NATO membership, the DCA agreement with the United States and the British-led JEF cooperation. During Finland’s NATO membership process, President Sauli Niinistö also checked Donald Trump’s position on Finland’s NATO membership, and it was positive.

Trump and Harris will not change this situation in the future. However, it requires us to fulfill our obligations uncompromisingly as an ally – then we will also get help if we need it.