Western experts used models to calculate the economic development data of China and the United States in the next few decades and put forward the prediction that “China will never surpass the United States.” Is China sinking or America rising? This is a good question.
U.S. financial policy continues to struggle. AP pictures
After a quarter of a century, “China is about to collapse” has expired – Zhang Jiadun judged that China would last at most five years, and later highly predicted China’s collapse in 2016 to 2017 – the new crown pandemic has survived, the “Wall Street Journal” last year In July, he said that China would follow Japan and enter 10 or even 20 years of economic decline. “Any hope that the post-epidemic reopening will lead to a return to rapid economic growth in China has been dashed.” Then ask yourself: “Is China trapped in a middle-income trap, made worse by getting old before it gets rich? Or is it that once the epidemic occurs? When the chaos in the future subsides, a well-educated and innovative population can put their worries behind them and get rid of the haze of the property market?” As a result, China’s prospects are once again viewed through the filter of foreign analysts.
“Hua Ri” is in the same vein as Zhang Jiadun. China has three “terminal diseases”: 1. Political non-openness and autocratic dictatorship stifle free innovation and destroy the error correction ability of market equilibrium; 2. China’s economy is driven by exports, and the external environment directly affects prosperity and prosperity. ; 3. Local governments and private enterprises are heavily in debt and difficult to support.
Germany’s “Le Monde” reported that the GDP difference between the United States and China is now 10 trillion US dollars, which is not a small number. China has been growing rapidly in the past. It was originally thought that China would catch up with the United States in 2028, but through calculation models it was concluded that Conclusion: China must be under extremely favorable conditions before China can hope to catch up with the United States. “For example, if China’s inflation remains unchanged in the next few decades, China will have a growth rate that is at least twice that of the United States. Even so, it must at least be Only in 2057, that is, 30 years later, will China catch up with the United States.” But more and more people believe that “this will never happen.”
It doesn’t matter when China surpasses the United States. The West no longer dares to write predictions such as “China collapse” and “China is lost” on the wall. However, “China’s negative factors” have added three points: China’s real estate bubble and China’s population decline. Consumption is weak and youth unemployment is high. The relevant causes are explained by China’s three major “terminal diseases”. No matter how they talk about China, commentators ignore an important related factor: the United States.
The Global Times quoted an Australian analysis: “China has become the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity. Trump’s promotion of the ‘America First’ policy is tantamount to declaring that the United States has lost the trade competition.” This means What? Trump and Biden cannot suppress China’s technological innovation to drive economic growth. China will be able to achieve “Made in China 2025” as scheduled. If so, it is expected to surpass the United States, which lacks motivation.
The United States cannot defeat China with all its might. “China has set an example for the countries of the Global South, showing that international rules and order do not require a controller. Countries can act independently and still achieve success. Poor countries are becoming more and more confident in trade.” are no longer subject to the West and Japan. Now they have another industrialized country (China) as a sales target, which will not dictate to them or interfere in their internal affairs. Many countries, such as the BRICS, are Get rid of U.S. control of its economy.” In other words, U.S. leadership is disappearing.
The Australian media has not predicted when the above situation will be realized. However, I can borrow the words of Mr. Roach from Morgan Stanley and put it briefly: “It pains me to say that the United States is finished.” The reason? It just so happens that there are three points: the political contradictions in the United States are tearing apart the society; the U.S. manufacturing industry has lost its advantage and local production is difficult to revive; and finally, the U.S. debt is the largest on the planet and the largest in history, which cannot be solved at all.
Key point: When the United States returns to reality and seeks mutual benefit and win-win results with the most powerful country, that is when Hong Kong will regain its prosperity. Supplement: It won’t be long, it will be seen in everyone’s lifetime.
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After careful consideration and less than a week later, Blinken used American slang to counter Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s “Adou” theory. He spoke vividly and without reservation. Unfortunately, the image of the United States has not been greatly reduced, but has become beyond recognition, and even the world has become chaotic.
Blinken is here. AP pictures
As the chief diplomat of a superpower, US Secretary of State Blinken participated in the Munich Security Council discussion. When answering the host’s question about “the tension between the United States and China is leading to greater divisions,” he quoted an American slang saying that in the international system, ” If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu”. What’s the meaning? Translated into Chinese, the closest thing is the sentence from “Historical Records: The Chronicles of Xiang Yu”, “People are the swordsmen, and I am the flesh of the fish.” The scene is the “Hongmen Banquet”, and the protagonist happens to be Liu Bei, the father of “Adou”. At that time, Xiang Yu forced him to Come out to “talk the numbers” and hold a feast to demand the submission of the Shu Kingdom. This is exactly what Blinken said in the beautiful slang: “If you have the strength, come to the table and eat together. If you have no strength and will not compromise, I will take you in.” The kitchen slaughters everything and adds food to it.” Liu Bei didn’t want to be put on the menu on the spot, so he tried to escape. General Fan Kuai was angry and complained about the barbarism of the overlord of Chu, and lamented that he had allowed himself to be eaten by mermaids.
Blinken’s words were deliberately told to us, and they make sense. Otherwise, the Global Times would not have taken it seriously. It responded in an editorial, saying that Blinken’s words “expose the world view of the jungle and reveal a ruthless nature.” and chill”. Before finishing what he wanted to say, the article focused on pointing out that the United States has stopped pretending, and does not talk about Western civilization, democracy, freedom, equality and respect for the national sovereignty of all countries. , the law of the jungle where the law is the criterion.” In fact, the United States has always been so bad, saying one thing is beautiful but doing another cruel thing: “More than 200 years ago, (the United States) massacred and occupied the land of the Indians who had lived here for generations in North America. This kind of thinking is reflected in reality. “The embodiment of”; this is not all, “Ring Time” exposed the entire West at once: “The First World War provoked by the old European empires was like this, and the Cold War was also like this to a certain extent.”
What is the current situation today? “With the advancement of political civilization and the development of economic globalization,” do you still want the world to follow the United States’ thinking of “cutting one’s throat with one’s sword or making flesh with one’s own flesh”? In the competition between China and the United States, one must choose one of the two. Taking sides? For example, if the United States prevents China from taking the lead in 5G mobile communication technology, the United States will help the world block Huawei and ZTE. If the United States cannot compete with Chinese electric vehicles, it will order Japan, South Korea, and Europe to build trade barriers to prevent BYD and other domestically produced vehicles. Brand export…
How much energy does the United States have today to “take advantage of” the world? To be honest, it seems that it is out of will, so the United States can no longer care about its status as a leading country and a beacon of the world. It abandoned the splendid “universal value” palace built for a century and went to Liangshan to be a “hero”.
Suddenly, people are reminded of the Sanxingdui cultural relics unearthed in Sichuan. Those bronzes with “majestic, ferocious, and terrifying” shapes turned out to be intentional, representing the civilization of the ancient slave class system. The rulers no longer talk about benevolence, justice, and harmony, but only seek harmony The world looks to its rulers with fear. Blinken threatens the whole world, including China. Is he a cultural relic from Sanxingdui that has traveled through time? According to the current conjectures of quantum mechanics, it is possible, because if the quantum entanglement phenomenon is established, there is a “parallel universe” here, and Blinken came through time, a smile.
Postscript: Did I mistake Liu Bei for Liu Bang? Yes, but no, Liu Bei may have gone to the “parallel universe” to fight between Chu and Han, another smile. If there is any misleading, it is just a coincidence!
#pains #America
2024-02-23 11:16:08
