Time for Israeli decisions on Rafa – Warning from the US – 2024-03-29 16:25:30

Will Israel heed the warning not to launch a full-scale ground attack on Rafa; The answer remains to be given, however, almost six months after the outbreak of war between the Israeli army and Hamas, Washington is now visibly distancing itself from one of its close allies.

The US opted to abstain on Monday in a vote held at the UN Security Council, allowing for the first time in theory the adoption of a legally binding resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Sparking the ire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who canceled an Israeli delegation’s visit to Washington precisely to discuss US concerns about the assault on Rafah, on the southern edge of the Palestinian enclave, much of which has been reduced to rubble by the war.

However, a senior American official said yesterday that the services of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu informed that “they would like a new date to be agreed” to organize these talks.

Washington has publicly and repeatedly opposed Israeli plans to attack Rafah, where most of the Gazans who fled to escape shelling and fighting in other areas of the enclave, especially in the north, have taken refuge.

Already in an awkward position as the casualty count in Gaza Strip has surpassed 32,000 dead, the vast majority of them civilians, the US insists on warning against further mass loss of civilian life and further isolating Israel and proposes “alternatives” to the ground assault on Rafah, which Prime Minister Netanyahu called “the last stronghold” of Hamas.

“The kind of mission that we could support is a limited campaign, much more targeted that would still achieve the same objectives, but without causing mass harm to the civilian population,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said yesterday. .

However, Mr. Netanyahu warned that he would order an operation in Rafah with or without US political support, while US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was in Tel Aviv.

For Steven Wertheim, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the US is “trying to limit the damage that such an operation would cause” in Rafah, which has already been bombarded intensively for days.

“No tangible impact”

The US government has strongly and unwaveringly supported Israel since the beginning of the war, which was triggered by an unprecedented attack by Hamas in southern sectors of its territory, and continues to supply the Israeli army with weapons and ammunition.

But, because of the huge number of civilian casualties and the dramatic humanitarian situation, he increased the pressure on Israel, calling in particular to allow the delivery of more humanitarian aid.

Besides, Washington has raised the tone and recently imposed sanctions on some settlers accused of violent incidents in the West Bank, Palestinian territory under Israeli occupation since 1967.

“The Biden administration has increasingly sought to distance itself from Israel and above all from Netanyahu,” according to Michael Sigg of the Washington Institute.

But US President Joe Biden has made it clear and repeatedly that he will not use the main lever of pressure at his disposal — military aid.

The Security Council’s decision “sends a signal, but it has no tangible impact on Israel’s ability to continue” this war, Mr. Sigg stressed, while imposing arms restrictions “would have a much higher cost” at the strategic and political level. .

Democratic President Biden’s administration has chaotic differences of opinion with that of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, described as “the most right-wing” in Israel’s history.

There will be no “change”

Apart from the way the war is being waged, the two governments also fundamentally disagree about the next day of the war. The Biden administration wants to see the process of establishing a Palestinian state begin. That of Prime Minister Netanyahu is not even willing to discuss such a possibility.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a staunch supporter of Israel and a close associate of President Biden, caused an uproar by personally accusing Mr. Netanyahu a few days ago and calling for elections in Israel during a speech that the US president called ” good speech.”

American officials were quick to assure that Chuck Schumer was not speaking on behalf of the administration. However, the question remains to be answered whether he simply said loudly what is being said quietly in the Biden administration.

A few months before the presidential election in November, Joe Biden is under increasing political pressure, not only from the American Muslim and Arab population, but also from young voters and from the left wing of his party.

According to a Gallup poll released yesterday, only 36% of Americans approve of how Israel is doing, down from 50% in November.

James Ryan, executive director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, expects “criticism to become harsher,” but by no means a major U.S. “change” in its support for Israel.