Three years after the pandemic: excess deaths: not just corona

“People are getting older, but then Corona comes along.” Even before the outbreak, life expectancy decreased (slightly) in many industrialized countries. Economist Joseph Stiglitz complained to the United States three years ago, but it went largely unnoticed. Also in Germany, the 2015/17 mortality table calculated by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reflects a reversal of the trend in life expectancy. Various factors play a role in background noise: for example, increased consumption of unhealthy foods, increased fine dust pollution due to increased traffic volume or weather conditions due to hot summers. The acceleration of life, both professionally and personally, due to new media and increased economic efficiency tends to have a negative impact on health. In addition, the growing divisions of society take years – the poor die before that.

Then came Covid-19. On 9 March 2020, the first two Germans infected with the virus died in Germany: two retirees from North Rhine-Westphalia who had some previous illnesses. Nursing homes have been hit hard in the following period. “Around the world, they are hot spots for people taking dangerous and potentially fatal courses, especially in the first year,” says Barmer’s Current Care report. Its population accounts for half of the deaths from Covid-19 in many countries, including Germany. Development varies greatly from country to country. “Countries with lower acceptance of corona measures also have higher rates of COVID-19 in the population,” wrote report author Barmer. The proportion of patients receiving full-time care is particularly high in Saxony (10.3%), Thuringia (9.7%) and Bavaria (6.3%).

“The immediate impact of Covid-19 has been tragic,” wrote the Organization of Industrialized Countries, OECD, in its current health report. But it also varies from country to country. While the number of confirmed and suspected corona deaths per million population from January 2020 to early October 2021 in Hungary or Brazil is around 3,000, Germany and Sweden – despite their long differing corona policies – are in the middle (around 1,500). Japan, Indonesia and Norway fared relatively well with around 500 deaths.

The OECD notes that statistics tend to be distorted by differences in testing and reporting. This also applies to “cumulative excess deaths”. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the total number of all deaths averaged 16 percent higher than the number expected for a long time. It seems that the problem is not just a direct result of the outbreak. In some countries such as Mexico, Poland and the United States, the excess death rate is much higher than the number of deaths from Corona.

As an explanation, the Institute for Health and Social Research in Berlin said, among other things, some people with cardiovascular disease or cancer do not allow themselves to be hospitalized for fear of Corona. The European Union statistics office Eurostat reported this week that even in a pandemic year, Covid-19 is the third most common cause of death in the European Union with around 439,000 deaths. Experts cite the long-term consequences of alienation from doctors and a further rise in so-called civilizational diseases such as obesity to explain the excess deaths that remain after the coronavirus pandemic subsides.

According to Destatis’ projections, in January 2023 the number of deaths in Germany will be 13 percent higher than the 2019 to 2022 average value for that month, which may also have something to do with the seasonal flu outbreak. During the mitigation process, the number of deaths decreased from week to week, only to increase again in the eighth week of the calendar. The Euromomo research network noted a similar development of excess mortality in almost all European countries. However, the statistics are toying with themselves: as demographic evolution means more people are getting older, more people will die in 2023 than in the previous four years.

If you look at an individual’s chances of survival in this country, according to Destatis, there are “very large” deviations from the average, for example in terms of living conditions, lifestyle, employment and health status. This was true during the height of the Corona pandemic – and it is also true after.