Three years after Brexit, the British are still waiting for the benefits

• Fleur Launspach

  UK and Ireland correspondent

When the United Kingdom officially left the European Union exactly three years ago today, the B word was banned. The British were tired of Brexit, the country had been divided for years. It happened, we don’t talk about it anymore, was the sentiment.

But now the talk is back and public opinion on Brexit appears to be shifting. According to polls, the majority of Britons are now negative about leaving the European Union: 56 percent of respondents would consider Brexit a ‘bad idea’, while only 32 percent still maintain that it was a good plan.

For the first time since the Brexit referendum (which divided the country into 48 percent against and 52 percent in favor), there is now a majority of Brexit votersregretters, people who regret leaving the EU. They suffer Bre-gretBritish media jokes.

Could this be related to the economic disadvantages of Brexit, which are now becoming more apparent? Emphasis on ‘something’; because by no means all the effects of the British exit have crystallized and it is still difficult for economists to isolate the Brexit effects from the corona pandemic and the energy crisis.

Take, for example, the exodus of European workers during corona, who returned in smaller numbers as a result of Brexit. Is that because of Brexit or because of the pandemic? That is difficult to determine.

A comparison that gives more guidance is that the UK is the only G7 country whose economy is still smaller than before corona. The UK may be on course to become the worst performing of the world’s largest economies this year, according to IMF data released today. Worse even than sanctioned Russia – if the numbers from that country can be trusted.

The UK economy seems less resilient after Brexit: the problems we are seeing across Europe seem to be hitting the UK economy harder. Take inflation figures that – just like in neighboring countries – were largely caused by high global energy prices. But in the UK, these are being driven up further by a tight labor market and higher import costs.

The feeling that things are not working well in the country is also contributing to national pessimism about Brexit. For some time now, the UK has been plagued by a wave of strikes in the public sector.

Workers are demanding extra money, which the government says is not available. The UK healthcare sector in particular, with 7.3 million people on the waiting list, is in crisis due to a combination of underpayment and structural staff shortages. Shortage of personnel, which is also partly due to Brexit.

Nieuwsuur also paid attention to three years of Brexit last night:

Don’t fall into the trap of’Bad news Britain‘, sounds on the other side of the political spectrum. Like everything in the world, economic figures also have political colors. The short-term challenges should not cloud the long-term picture, says Treasury Secretary Hunt. “If we succeed in halving inflation next year, the UK can grow faster than Germany and Japan in the coming years,” he says.

Current trends aside, the UK remains one of the most prosperous places in the world: it is the sixth largest economy in the world. Moreover, Brexit has ensured that the country can take decisions more quickly and autonomously. For example, the UK is leading Europe’s military support to Ukraine and was able to approve and distribute a vaccine much faster than the 27 EU member states during the pandemic.

Although public opinion is shifting, politically speaking, Brexit remains a taboo subject. Even the opposition Labor party is conspicuously silent when it comes to possible future rapprochement with Europe. The party leading in the polls and gearing up to win next year’s national election is strategically keeping a low profile knowing that the electorate in northern England could produce volatile Brexit voters.

Meanwhile, the entire Conservative party is strictly adhering to its mission of highlighting the benefits of Brexit and placing the economic headwind primarily in a global context.

However, Prime Minister Sunak seems to be working behind the scenes to find a solution to solve the headache file about the border in Northern Ireland as quickly as possible. The hope is that an agreement will finally be reached with Brussels before the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April. Just in time to roll out the red carpet for US President Biden’s visit – and yet to find out how he views that long-delayed trade deal with the United States.