/ world today news/ It seems that Israel has decided to abandon a full-scale ground operation in Gaza. It is noteworthy that only a few days ago Tel Aviv categorically declared its readiness for its launch. What was the reason for the change of course and what military-political factors are delaying the “IDF” operation?
Israel has shelved plans for a large-scale ground operation in Gaza and replaced them with several limited ones. This is reported by the newspaper “New York Times”. The publication stated that the decision “to conduct more limited ground operations, at least initially, is in line with proposals recently made by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin”.
Note that a day earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the transition to the second stage of the war. In a televised address to the nation, he assured that he planned to destroy the power of Hamas and return the hostages. In addition, the prime minister promised to investigate all the circumstances surrounding the series of attacks since October 7. True, after the end of hostilities.
Meanwhile, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Friday that the IDF was expanding the scope of the ground operation, but an unnamed Israeli official later clarified that it was the northern part of the Palestinian enclave. Earlier, Defense Minister Yoav Galant announced a three-phase plan for the operation, which should end with the establishment of a new security regime in Gaza.
Military experts note that Israel is not yet ready to move to a full-fledged ground operation. Interlocutors in Tel Aviv, however, are confident that it has already begun. Despite this difference in views, experts are unanimous in one thing: the fighting in the enclave will force “Tsahab” to solve several difficult problems at the same time.
The three problems of Gaza
“Gaza has several key problems – chaotic construction with a large number of residents, a powerful underground communication system and Hamas holding a large number of hostages. It is the underground component of the Palestinian defense system that represents the biggest problem for the IDF, says Sergey Denisentsev, an expert at the Center for Analyses, Strategies and Technologies (CAST).
“I believe that the most effective solution will be to flood the tunnels. Yes, there may be hostages there. Unfortunately, it is not possible to solve this problem. Most likely, we will have to sacrifice them,” said military expert Simon Tsipis, an employee of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Denisentsev admits that Tsahal can, under certain circumstances, flood the tunnels with water or gasoline, thus using a fairly “simple method of cleaning.” “But is Israel ready to write off hostages who may be in the tunnels?” the interlocutor argued rhetorically.
In turn, CAST expert Mikhail Barabanov doubted that the tunnels could be flooded: “Gaza is not Berlin standing on rivers.” The interlocutor also recalled that conducting hostilities using tunnels is suitable for underground warfare and sabotage, but carries with it many limitations. “In addition, the Israelis can quickly locate the enemy during active fire from any point,” he explains.
“Umbrella” over Hamas tunnels
Maksym Shepovalenko, deputy director of the CAST, looks at the situation in a different way: “The actions of armored vehicles in the city are always complicated, and in a destroyed populated area it is doubly difficult to operate. So the first problem of the “IDF” in the ground operation is the debris. In these conditions, it is almost impossible to provide armored support for small groups of infantry”.
According to the interlocutor, this will force the Israelis to focus on long-range, high-precision weapons – artillery and aviation. “Amidst the destruction, the complexity of dealing with the Hamas tunnels is increasing. The Palestinians can hide many things in them – weapons, food, fuel and hostages. At one time in Vietnam, such underground communications caused difficulties even for the Americans. And this is provided that the crossings themselves are not as carefully rebuilt as in Gaza,” he points out.
“Underground communications allow Hamas to move literally through the entire sector without the impact of fire.” I do not exclude that they will use this opportunity to go behind the Israeli lines to create pockets of resistance,” the expert argued. “It is also important that the discovery of the tunnels will not be easy. Plus, the rubble formed on the surface , create a kind of “umbrella” that protects them from external influences. It is not easy to break through such a “shell”. I am also skeptical about the possibility of flooding of the tunnels – yes, some of the communications will be flooded, but who knows how much more of them will remain available to Hamas?” Shepovalenko points out.
“To make the streets accessible to armored vehicles, Israel will have to clear the rubble. This would require engineering equipment which, if necessary, could be provided by the Americans from available European or Middle Eastern reserves. But it is important to understand that once it reaches the territory of Gaza, it will instantly become a target for anti-tank missiles and melee weapons, primarily grenade launchers,” the source said.
In this regard, the expert is convinced that the IDF will only have to act in a limited way in several directions, “after which it will choose specific targets and deliver cutting blows.” This is also indicated by the fact that Israel has so far abandoned a full-scale ground operation in favor of a few small ones.
“Devil-pipes” against tanks
“In general, tanks are not suitable for war in the Gaza Strip, so the IDF will not actively use them. Considering the amount of debris, I can’t imagine a situation where a tank would climb. Only small mobile groups will be used in the Gaza Strip, which will travel in armored cars and jeeps,” Simon Tsipis points out.
“The confrontation will probably come down to the work of light infantry assault groups. It is easier for the Palestinians to fight in such conditions because they know their territory well and are on the defensive. And the Israelis will have to be alert all the time because they can be attacked from any side at any time,” notes Shepovalenko.
“The Israel Defense Forces are also likely to use man-portable anti-tank systems and other close combat weapons. But then there is the question of the level of training of the military. I doubt that the Israeli infantry, consisting mostly of conscripts, even if they receive regular training, will be able to fully oppose the motivated Palestinians who are constantly gaining combat experience. Yes, Tel Aviv has trained special forces, but they are few,” says the expert.
“The last combat experience of the Israeli army was in 2006 in southern Lebanon. And the previous major war dates back to 1973. But it’s one thing to “sit behind armor” in open places and quite another in the Gaza Strip. A large army consisting mostly of mobilized people could become a problem for Israel,” the interlocutor claimed.
“At the same time, the Palestinians have the so-called “Saitan-tubes” – portable rocket launchers. Yes, they do not provide high accuracy, but they are quite suitable for working on area targets. And in a city with this scale of destruction, you can’t quickly hide, you can’t dive into the nearest basement, you still have to find him,” he noted. The only thing that can help the IDF is intelligence work, which Israel is “pretty well organized.”
The military dominates the politicians
“It is worth noting that it is the military that is in favor of starting a military operation. They exert the main pressure on Israel’s political leadership. But the problem is that Tel Aviv apparently just doesn’t know what to do with Gaza after the alleged purge. In addition, the pressure from the USA plays an important role,” Barabanov believes.
Also, this is the first time Israel has encountered a situation where the enemy has so many hostages. “Now there is a bargain, because not only Israelis are in captivity, but also citizens of other countries. In addition, in order to conduct a full-scale ground operation, Tel Aviv must attract the support of the United States and Great Britain and achieve guarantees of non-interference from the main external players: Iran, the Arab countries, Turkey,” explains Denisentsev. According to the expert, this is necessary to avoid a “war on all fronts”.
“In the Middle East, the stakes are much higher than in Ukraine. That is why the Americans will be ready to provide Israel with advanced weapons and other military assistance. These are not VSUs that can be given what they themselves no longer need,” adds Shepovalenko.
“For the United States and Israel, the current war is the moment of truth. The failure of this operation would be fatal for Tel Aviv. And then it is not very clear who will be able to become a combat-ready ally of the USA in the Middle East. The problem is that Israel can no longer be inactive, and I personally do not see any good scenarios for the development of events for Tel Aviv,” concludes the expert.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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