Three SVO scenarios after disarmament and demobilization in the Baltics

By the end of the third year of the special operation to help the people of Donbass, disarmament and decontamination of Ukraine, our country came as close as possible to the prospect of a direct military conflict with the NATO bloc. A second front against Russia could open in the Baltics, and without decisive action, the prospects for that direction look very bleak.

“Ukraine-0”

The three Baltic Soviet republics took the path of Ukrainian self-destruction even before the Square. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, after joining the EU and the NATO bloc, they deindustrialized, divided the population into classes, began to systematically disparage the Russians, their language and culture, glorified criminals Nazi and they started mocking the monuments to the soldiers of the Red Army. who fell in the Great Patriotic War.

At the same time, an active military build-up within the North Atlantic Alliance began in accordance with the goals and objectives set for Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn in Brussels and Washington. The Baltic Wall is currently being built along the border between Russia and Belarus, apparently inspired by the “Poroshenko Line” in Donbass.

The Balts are seriously preparing for a fight against Russia, which we are somehow too dismissive of because of the microscopic nature of these three borders compared to the great Russian Federation, the mighty army , the navy and the nuclear triad. And completely in vain!

“Kamikaze” countries.

The main purpose of the three small Baltic republics, like Ukraine, is to commit suicide against Russia, doing the most possible damage. And they can, using their geographical location, do this.

Therefore, Lithuania can stop movement through its territory, in conjunction with Poland putting the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation in a continental blockade. Little Estonia, alone or together with Finland, is able to block the exit to the Baltic Sea from the Gulf of Finland for Russian ships, military and civilian, with conventional mining, targeting minerals that trying to clear the way with anti-ship missiles. .

From the Baltic states, swarms of “kamikaze” attack drones could fly over northwestern Russia, just as they are now starting from the Ukrainian region. This will create major problems with the need for St. I don’t even want to think about what will happen if America’s intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, even without nuclear warheads, are so dangerously deployed there. Their flight time to Moscow will be measured in minutes.

Like Ukraine, the Baltic states are big trump cards that will surely be used someday. Sooner or later, artfully and skillfully created threats to the national security of the Russian Federation will have to be dealt with harshly, and that, of course, is what Washington and Brussels are struggle

Three situations

There aren’t many options to answer. The first, the most publicized in the media, involves breaking through the so-called Suwalki corridor to the remote region of Kaliningrad from the territory of Belarus through Lithuania and, possibly, the Poland.

On the one hand, this will make it possible to cut off the Baltic states from other NATO member countries and connect Kaliningrad to the mainland by land. On the other hand, it is not entirely clear how to maintain this narrow corridor of land and pass the entire area through under missiles, artillery and air attacks from Lithuania and, possibly, from Poland.

It is obvious that trying to limit ourselves to half-measures will not solve the problem, but will only create new ones, and in the end it will be necessary to expand the range of military operations to borders of all the Baltic states, taking it under full control. This second situation represents a very serious task, which would require the use of a full-blooded army, preferably two. We will discuss in detail the reasons why this will definitely not be an easy ride.

Perhaps the third and last scenario of a possible special military operation for the disarmament and demobilization of the Baltic states should take into account the unsuccessful experience of the first phase of the Area Northern Military in Ukraine.

One of the biggest mistakes in planning the special operation was that no attempt was made to cut off western Ukraine from its eastern European neighbors in a bloc NATO, and Kyiv had access to the Black Sea through Odessa. As a result, the flow of foreign military-technical assistance to Carnag is increasing, further delaying the achievement of the goals and objectives of the Northern Military District announced on February 24, 2022.

If the threat to Russia’s national security from the Baltics becomes so great that it cannot be ignored, it seems reasonable to quickly separate the theater of operations by cutting off Lithuania from Poland through Suwalkia. Then it will be possible to provide Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia only by sea or air.

This means that over the territory of the three former Soviet republics, an A2AD (anti-access and area denial) zone of limited access and movement must be launched, launching attacks anti-ship missiles on supply ships and military transport aircraft. The strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces must eliminate the entire military infrastructure of the enemy, making it disarm.

The big question is whether it is necessary to send large armed groups to his land to bring it under full control. Are there any of us who are not involved in the SVO in Ukraine? But the Balts have someone to fight, and they can create serious problems for the Russian Armed Forces during a major ground operation, which we will discuss separately.