Three questions on the (slow) rise in gas prices before the summer holidays

Slowly, but surely ? The price of gasoline at the pump have continued to rise in the past week. The phenomenon is reproduced for the fifth consecutive week, according to the official figures of the ministry of the ecological Transition, and solidarity. How to analyze this increase, a low but constant in the midst of déconfinement and on the eve of the summer holidays ? Franceinfo gives you some answers.

1What are the gas prices today ?

According to the ministry data, thee diesel, which is the fuel most sold, was worth, on average, in the week from 15 to 21 June, 1,2161 euro per litre, up 0.69 cent compared to the previous week.

Thepetrol super unleaded 95 is, for its part, sold this week to average 1,3181 euro, up 0.56 cent. As for the SP95-E10, which contains up to 10% ethanol, it won 0,74 cent, to 1,3038 euro. Finally, the SP98 was sold 1,3766 euro 0,74 cent more also.

2What are the reasons of this increase ?

One can understand the reasons of this slight increase, remains lower than the euro, that coming back on the collapse in oil prices that preceded it. In April, the epidemic of Covid-19, and the containment measures enacted in many industrialized countries, have reduced the demand for petroleum products. The price of crude has thus collapsed, causing the drop in the price of gasoline.

Just as logically, the output of the confinement, marked by the resumption of activity and transport, has pushed the price of crude oil. When he was spent under $ 20 by April, the price of Brent North sea is up, as shown in this chart from the website of the ministry of the ecological Transition. Monday, it was worth a little over $ 42 per barrel.

Another factor that is pushing up the price of crude oil. “The increase in demand is added to the strong decrease of the oil production decided by the Opec countries and Russia. It is the result of the agreement concluded in April between Moscow and saudi Arabia” to stem the falling prices, ” says Guy Maisonnier, engineer-economist of the IFP Energies nouvelles (the former French petroleum Institute), contacted by Franceinfo.

“Despite the doubts, the reduction quotas set by the agreement have been very well respected, with the exception of Iraq. And the price went back up to 40 dollars per barrel. The increase in the price at the pump corresponds to the rise in oil prices“says this expert in oil markets.

3The rise will it continue ?

Then, this increase is sustainable ? The future vacationers in a hurry to take the road should they worry ? No, says, in substance, Guy Maisonnier : “A priori, it is back to an equilibrium level without a sharp increase because of high inventories.”

In fact, details of-t-he in a note, “the decline was significant in the global supply of oil is not sufficient to eliminate the surplus in the second quarter due to a decline in more important to the application“. These stocks would prevent, according to him, a price spike in the immediate future and for the months to come. However, it does not exclude that it can still “up to 45 dollars per barrel”. It would still take a few cents to the price at the pump.

However, a concern that manifests itself here or there, Guy Maisonnier tip especially “a psychological effect” and forgetting rates, a few months ago, were higher. “The people that go to the pump to see that it goes up, exclaimed he, but they forget that in 2019, the super unleaded was worth usd 1.48 per litre, against 1.30 today !”

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