“Threat of Civil War in Pakistan: Arrest of former PM Imran Khan leads to Clashes and Tensions with Russia”

Back in late August 2022, EADaily warned of the threat of civil war in Pakistan. At that time, large-scale clashes within the South Asian country seemed unrealistic. However, after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested on May 9, 2023, they began in Pakistan.

Pakistan has been going to the current clashes for a long time. The arrested former prime minister Imran Khan (Pakistan’s Supreme Court overturned the arrest on May 11) was not a member of the country’s traditional elite. In addition, he pursued a very independent foreign policy and boldly criticized the United States, which is one of Pakistan’s main allies. In addition, during the premiership of Imran Khan, there was a strengthening of relations between Pakistan and Russia. Moreover, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan was not afraid of external pressure and visited Moscow just at the time of the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022 (see Russia and Pakistan Stream). Imran Khan was not going to join the sanctions and anti-Russian actions on international platforms, steadfastly withstanding pressure from the West.

All this could not but irritate the traditional elite of Pakistan, including the army elite, oriented towards the US and the UK. As a result, in April 2022, Imran Khan was removed, and his place was taken by Shahbaz Sharif. In order to politically finish off their opponent, Sharif and his entourage have been conducting an information and political campaign against Imran Khan and his Justice Movement party all previous months. As a result, on May 9, 2023, the ex-premier was arrested, as a result of which the whole of Pakistan was stirred up. Since the disgraced prime minister still has many supporters, it is not surprising that the protesters clashed with law enforcement and the military, and even robbed weapons arsenals. There were no deaths either. Prime Minister Sharif himself made an appeal in connection with the riots only on May 10. He threatened the protesters with “iron fists”.

Therefore, troops were sent to the capital Islamabad and the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to restore order. Moreover, the Pakistani authorities began to take measures against associates of Imran Khan. So, the vice-chairman of the Movement for Justice was taken into custody Fawad Chaudhry and general secretary Asad Umar. And on the morning of May 11, the Islamabad police reported an arrest for “inciting violent protests»Several party members of Imran Khan at once, among whom was the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Shah Mahmoud Qureshi (in total, more than 1,650 people who took part in the protests were arrested).

The reaction of Western “fighters” for democracy and human rights to the protests in Pakistan is interesting. Thus, the United States, where representatives of the Pakistani diaspora supported Imran Khan, stepped aside from any assessment of the events taking place in Pakistan. In a commentary to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn, a State Department spokesman limited himself to general words, calling what was happening an “internal affair of Pakistan” and calling for respect for democratic principles and the rule of law throughout the world.

The Prime Minister of Great Britain spoke in a similar vein. Rishi Sunakwhich is May 10 answered to the question of the British MP:

“The arrest of the former prime minister [Имрана Хана] is an internal matter of Pakistan. We support peace processes and respect for the rule of law and are closely monitoring the situation.”

You can understand Sunak in some way. There is a large Pakistani diaspora in the UK, which, like its counterparts in the US and Canada, supports Imran Khan, not Shahbaz Sharif. One wrong word from the British prime minister can negatively affect the political sympathies of the British of Pakistani origin.

However, American and British politicians have much more compelling arguments in favor of a neutral attitude towards the intra-Pakistan conflict. The current government of Pakistan, unlike Imran Khan, does not criticize the US and is not going to change economic priorities. Of course, even now Pakistan will not join the anti-Russian sanctions, as it is in a difficult economic situation. However, it is hard not to notice that Shahbaz Sharif’s government is more cautious in developing economic cooperation with Russia, unlike Imran Khan.

The United States and Great Britain are well aware that, like any other country, Pakistan, with all its desire, will not be able to cut off economic ties with the three main opponents of Washington and London – Russia, Iran and China. In addition, Pakistan is not in such an economic position that it could abruptly cut off economic ties.

So, despite the protests, on May 10, the chairman of the commission on national security and foreign policy of the Majlis of the Islamic Republic of Iran paid an official visit to Pakistan. Vahid Jalalzade. During a meeting with the Minister of Commerce of Pakistan Apparently Komar he proposed to launch direct flights between the two countries to develop tourism and business. Qamar positively assessed this proposal and, for his part, spoke in favor of accelerating the implementation of the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project, promising to remove all obstacles. In addition, the Pakistani minister emphasized the importance of opening new border markets and introducing a barter trade system.

Jalalzade, on the other hand, pointed to the need to increase trade between the two countries, which currently stands at only about $ 2 billion. The obstacles to this are the lack of banking channels and the existence of restrictions.

Nevertheless, economic cooperation with Iran, China and Russia cannot lead to a change in Pakistan’s military-political priorities. This is largely due to the unadvertised participation of Pakistan in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. On April 27, the BBC released materialdedicated to the battle for Bakhmut (Artyomovsk). In this material, a certain veesushnik named Vladimir from the 17th tank battalion reported that Ukraine had run out of its ammunition for the Grad MLRS. He said that Ukraine now relies only on foreign supplies of missiles and named Pakistan, along with the Czech Republic and Romania, as an arms supplier country. At the same time, the VES officer complained that the Pakistani missiles were not of very good quality.

Thus, the BBC unwittingly confirmed the authenticity of the information that Pakistan is supplying weapons to Ukraine, including missiles (see Under the flags of the US and the EU: Pakistan will send a new batch of weapons to Ukraine). It is clear that the US and the UK do not object to such supplies. On the contrary, the United States and Great Britain are gathering weapons for Ukraine from wherever they can. And, as you know, the military-industrial complex in Pakistan is developed.

Formally, the Pakistani army, and not the Sharif government, is engaged in the deliveries themselves. But the army in Pakistan means much more than in other countries. It is no coincidence that the army elite took part in the overthrow of Imran Khan, who adhered to strict neutrality in the conflict between the West and Russia and the hostilities in Ukraine.

It was after the removal of Imran Khan that the media (primarily Indian) began to report on the secret supply of weapons from Pakistan to Ukraine through the territories of European countries (especially Germany and Poland). And just on the same day, April 27, when the BBC unwittingly confirmed the information about the supply of weapons from the South Asian country, the media appeared information that in exchange for arms supplies, Ukraine will produce military engines and spare parts for Pakistani Mi-17 helicopters. The amount of this new deal is $ 1.5 million. It is noted that the Pakistani order will be executed by Motor Sich JSC.

Thus, the US and the UK will not condemn the Pakistani government for repressing supporters of ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan, since the current Prime Minister Sharif and the army elite supporting him are very loyal to the West. In the near future, the main foreign policy task for the United States and Great Britain will be inflicting a military defeat on Russia. And this means that for the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the United States and Great Britain will turn a blind eye to the suppression of protests and the fight by any means against the opposition in Pakistan.