It was not long after the war in Ukraine began, before some called for the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among them was the American politician Lindsey Graham.
Since then, Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed that members of the Russian elite have plans to to assassinate Putin through poisoning. However, this is not confirmed by independent sources.
It has also been wondered if Putin has cancerwhich has been repeatedly denied by Russian authorities.
So, what will really happen if Russia’s president dies or is killed – and who will take control of the country?
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– A question of when
“Who will come to power when Putin disappears depends very much on the situation,” senior researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski at NUPI, who has been researching Russian foreign and security policy for more than 20 years, told Dagbladet.
He wants to make it clear that this is about speculation.
– First we can dismiss the scenario where Putin experiences a political defeat and is removed from power. There is very little indication that this will happen. The system he has built around him will protect him for a long time to come.
Godzimirski believes that if Putin dies suddenly, it will not change Russian politics, as the 69-year-old president has worked tirelessly to instill his ideology in his subjects.
The question is not whether Putin dies, but when, and under what circumstances.
– Many have speculated that he is seriously ill, but I think we will look far for a confirmation of that. But one thing that is certain is that there will be a power struggle in the circle around Putin when it comes time for a new Russian leader, Godzimirski says.
RESEARCHER IN RUSSIA: Senior researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski at NUPI. Photo: NUPI
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Swedish expert: – These are the candidates
– I think it will be Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who seems to be very close to Putin. An outsider is the former Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, who of course shares the same ideology as Putin, says Klas-Göran Karlsson, professor of history at Lund University to Expressenbefore continuing:
If not, the former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is a possible candidate, as he has begun to appear in public again.
INHERITOR? Could Demitrij Medvedev have taken over as Russian president if Vladimir Putin died? Photo: Sputnik / Dmitry Astakhov / Pool / REUTERS / NTB
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Norwegian expert strongly disagrees
Godzimirski believes that none of the names mentioned by Karlsson are very relevant as the new leader, if Putin should suddenly be out of the picture.
– The Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has lost too much face during the war to be a current candidate. He has been in charge of the Russian defense for many years. But now the war has lasted for several months, the Russians have suffered great losses and goals have not been reached, the researcher believes.
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Godzimirski also mentions that Shoigu is not an ethnic Russian, as he belongs to an ethnic minority from Siberia. The senior researcher thinks this means a lot to the Russian people.
He also says that Medvedev is not relevant to get such a big responsibility in Russia again. Medvedev was Russian president from 2008 to 2012.
– He is a playing card in the Russian political context. Admittedly, he has a position on the Security Council that was established specifically for him, which gives him a lot of weight. But he is seen as a slightly sad figure now simply, Godzimirski says.
He also dismisses Medinsky as a possible president, saying he lacks influence and is no longer a large enough political figure.
PUTIN FAN: Shoju should be one of Putin’s most loyal men. Photo: AFP / NTB
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– So who do you think might be relevant to actually take over then?
– On the side of politicians who support the war against Ukraine, I want to highlight Vyacheslav Volodin. He is the chairman of the State Duma of the Russian National Assembly.
Two peace-seeking candidates?
He also wants to bring out the female head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and former finance minister Alexei Kudrin.
“These are two people who have not shown much support for the invasion of Ukraine, and who most likely would have chosen to negotiate a peace agreement if they were to come to power,” Godzirmirski said.
He says that Nabilullina has great confidence in the Russian people and has proven to be a strong woman in the role of central bank governor.
However, she lacks political influence, which makes her far more insecure as a future presidential candidate.
FLINK: Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina is recognized for her professional prowess. Photo: Sergei Karpukhin / Reuters / NTB
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Alexei Kudrin, for his part, was forced to leave his post because he thought Russia was spending too much money on defense.
Medvedev, who was Russia’s president at the time, did not like it very much.
“Both of these are charismatic and could be two potential candidates to take over as leaders in Russia if Putin dies,” Godzimirski speculates.
Dropped Putin meeting
– Power vacuum
Magnus Christiansson is a senior lecturer in military science at the Swedish National Defense College. If Putin were to die during the war against Ukraine, Christiansson believes it will first lead to a power vacuum in Moscow.
– After the vacuum, there will probably be a power struggle internally, he says Expressen before continuing:
– The war would thus be paralyzed during this period, as no one will take any initiative while waiting for the balance of power to be restored.
Christiansson concludes that the most likely heir will be a person high up in the “power structures”.
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