Important international financial events this week include: US nonfarm payrolls in November, Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE) price index, third quarter GDP revisions and ISM manufacturing index and other major economic reports.EURRegional Consumer Price Index (CPI), Japanese and South Korean Industrial Production and Official Manufacturing PMI/Caixin of China.
In addition, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is to release the Beige Book on Thursday (1st), which will explain US economic activity and companies’ views on the outlook. Officials including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and voting members of the Federal Reserve del The Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also expected to speak.
This week’s trading notes (1128-1202)
1. Economic data such as US nonfarm payrolls and core PCE
US November nonfarm data will be released on Friday (2) Taiwan time. This is the latest nonfarm report before the last Fed interest rate meeting this year. After last month’s 261,000 new additions, the market is expected to add 200,000 people this month, the second consecutive month of slowing but still steady growth, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, slightly higher than the minimum of 50 years .
Changes in average hourly wages are also in the spotlight as the market becomes increasingly sensitive to inflation. After peaking at 5.6% in March, annualized growth in US average hourly wages fell to 4.7% in October and is expected to slow further to 4.6% this month.
Important US economic data for next week includes September house price index, third quarter GDP revision, November ISM manufacturing index, October JOLT job vacancies, last week unemployment data and the core PCE price index that the Fed is most concerned about. Core PCE growth down slightly in October.
2. Speeches by Fed Chairman Powell and several FOMC voters
Since the Fed held an interest rate meeting earlier this month, a slew of economic data has partially eased investors’ concerns about inflation. December However, many officials still reiterated that the official interest rate will be higher than originally expected.
The market’s attention is focused on New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams (John Williams), St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard (James Bullard) speaking this week.30 Speeches on the economic outlook and the US labor market.
TD Securities strategists expect Williams and Powell to clarify that the cycle of rate hikes will last longer as the job market remains tight and services sector inflation remains high.
3. EURDistrict PCI
BasicEURRegional CPI data will be announced on Wednesday and economists expect inflation to ease slightly in November, the first slowdown this year, but remain above 10% for two consecutive months.EURThe average annual growth rate expected for the region’s CPI was 10.4% in November, slightly lower than the previous value of 10.6%.
EURGermany, France, Italy and Spain, the four largest economies in the region, will also release individual inflation data. With the exception of Spain, inflation growth in the other three countries is expected to slow.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde (Christine Lagarde) will travel to the European Parliament to testify on Monday.EURInvestors are worried about any views on inflation and the region’s economic outlook. The ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane is also expected to speak on Thursday.
4. Asian industrial production and manufacturing data
Industrial production data from Japan and South Korea will be released on Wednesday (30) and the market will be paying close attention to the impact of slowing global economic growth on Asia’s two advanced industrial exporters. reveal the impact of global demand. state of health.
On the other hand, markets expect Caixin and the official manufacturing PMI to decline slightly this week as the resurgence of the epidemic forced local authorities in China to tighten epidemic prevention restrictions again, hurting economic activity local.
