Europe Braces for a Second Trump Term, Seeking Greater Autonomy on World Stage
The political landscape roiled as Donald Trump returned to the White House. His victory brought with it a wave of uncertainty not only in Arizona and Pennsylvania but across the Atlantic in Europe. European leaders, long reliant on the transatlantic partnership forged after World War II, see a second Trump term as a potent signal for the continent to forge its own path. The prevailing sentiment: Europe can no longer afford to depend on unpredictable American voters every four years for its security and well-being.
"We can’t rely on the whims of U.S. voters for our safety," declared Benjamin Haddad, France’s Minister Delegate for European Affairs. "Trump will prioritize American interests – that’s expected. It’s a wake-up call for Europe to protect its own."
That sentiment, echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron in recent years, resonates increasingly louder in European capitals.
The shock and bewilderment that gripped many Europeans after Trump’s 2016 victory has waned, replaced by a pragmatic, if grudging, acceptance. This time, Europe knows what to expect: a tempestuous leader with a transactional approach to diplomacy, unpredictable pronouncements, and a strained view of the NATO alliance.
Trump has already made his intentions clear. In wide-ranging interviews earlier this year, he pledged to confront Europe on issues like trade – "The European Union is brutal on trade," he declared – and defense spending, demanding that Europe "pay" its fair share.
He’s also vowed to swiftly end the brutality of the war in Ukraine, claiming he could achieve peace "in as little as a day" – a prospect that chills some observers, who fear it could involve forcing Kyiv to cede territories seized by Russia.
"We are much better prepared this time," acknowledged Nils Schmid, a German lawmaker and foreign policy spokesperson for the ruling Social Democrats. "We understand what awaits us. European unity is absolutely essential in navigating this.
One of Trump’s longstanding complaints is that the United States shoulders an outsized burden of European defense, a concern that intensified as the U.S. poured military aid into Ukraine after Russia’s invasion. Europe is already taking steps to bridge the gap. Several European foreign ministers have urged countries to assume a "greater role in assuring our own security," including exceeding current NATO defense spending targets and bolstering Europe’s industrial base. This shared desire for intensified self-reliance was reinforced by defense ministers across the continent who recently pledged to ramp up military support for Ukraine.
Analysts suggest that Europe recognizes the need to demonstrate its tangible commitment to shared security. "The view," explains Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group consultancy, "is that Europe can’t be credible on Ukraine, or expect Trump to factor in our sensitivities, unless we put more money on the table. This will give Trump an early win, allowing him to claim credit for pushing the E.U. to shoulder more of the financial burden for Ukraine – just as he did with NATO defense spending during his first term."
Georgina Wright, deputy director for international studies at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne, points to a shift in mindset within the E.U. towards Trump’s transactional style. "There’s a growing realization on the European side that you need to offer something in return if you want guarantees and security from the U.S., continued presence in Europe, and to avoid repercussions on trade," she underscores.
This pragmatic approach extends beyond security. Earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly floated the idea of boosting imports of American liquified natural gas, a strategic move to avoid Trump’s punishing tariffs. If these tariffs remain, the E.U. is prepared to retaliate with targeted tariffs on iconic American goods such as Kentucky bourbon, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and Levi’s jeans.
Observers are confident that the E.U. can maintain unity in the face of trade challenges. "When faced with something that affects the whole of the E.U., even if it hits some member states harder than others, we tend to band together," Wright states.
Support for Ukraine also appears unwavering. Despite opposition from Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, the E.U. has provided €122 billion ($131 billion) in military and financial aid to the embattled nation.
However, Europe faces internal challenges. Germany’s government collapsed earlier this month over budget disputes, and fresh elections are scheduled for February 23rd – meaning a new government won’t be in place until well into Trump’s second term. France is also grappling with a debt crisis that threatens its government and potentially the eurozone itself.
While a weakened Berlin and Paris doesn’t necessarily paralyze the E.U., Trump may opt to bypass European institutions entirely and interact directly with individual leaders. This is where specific European figures become crucial.
Two individuals stand out as potential conduits to the Trump administration: Mark Rutte, the reformist Dutch premier who serves as NATO chief and was dubbed "the Trump whisperer" for his rapport with the president during his first term.
The other is Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s conservative Prime Minister, whose embrace of MAGA ideology has earned her accolades from the Trumpian right, including Elon Musk, Trump’s incoming efficiency czar.
Europe’s most prominent leaders recognize the urgency of a stronger, more independent Europe in the face of a potentially capricious American administration.
"Will we fade into obscurity, bullied by larger powers, or will we reclaim our agency?" asks Haddad. "The slumber of the past eight years is over. It’s time to wake up and forge our own destiny.”
Others caution against a Europe that completely abandons its vital security alliance with the U.S. Schmid, pointing to Macron’s call for a
overhaul of Europe’s security architecture with a less dependence on the U.S. nuclear deterrent and a greater reliance on France’s own nuclear arsenal.
"The French often push too far," Schmid warns. "I think most European governments prefer a rock-solid commitment to European security from the U.S. alongside a robust European defense. But exchanging the American nuclear umbrella for the uncertainty of the outcome of the next French presidential election is not a promising alternative."
