Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Tehran this week and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The visit is Putin’s second trip abroad since launching the invasion war in Ukraine in February.
The Russian president traveled to Turkmenistan and Tajikistan in June. However, this is a country Putin has great influence over and few political contradictions with.
This time there is far more at stake. The official agenda for the meeting is to expand economic ties between Iran and Russia.
Iranian parliamentarian Mohammadreza Pour-Ebrahimi has in a statement to the state news agency Irna stated that the sanctions against Russia make it more important to work closely with Iran.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also attend the meeting.
– These are large, important countries in the world arena, and there is far greater prestige associated with the visit, says Tor Bukkvoll, senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI).
Sender signal
He believes Putin has important domestic political interests in carrying out the visit.
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– I think his main purpose is to show the Russians that he is not worried about the situation in Ukraine. He wants to show that there is good enough control over the situation so that he can also do other things. It is important for his domestic agenda, Bukkvoll believes.
High on the agenda for the visit is the Syrian war, in which Turkey, Russia and Iran are all important players.
– Putin will demonstrate to the outside world that Russia manages to be a great power at the same time as they fight in Ukraine, Bukkvoll says.
Important for Russia
Russia’s relations with Turkey are probably better than with any other NATO country.
In June, Turkey signed an agreement with Sweden and Finland that opened up for their membership in the alliance. Shortly afterwards, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov went out and confirmed that the agreement would not affect relations between Moscow and Ankara.
– Why was the response here so mild?
Erdogan praying for Putin
– It is something we have seen many times in the relationship between them. There is almost nothing that can ruin it. Erdogan is probably the only leader within NATO who can find common ground with Putin. He often acts against the will of the United States, he says.
– Moscow probably thinks that a fairly good relationship with Turkey is so important that they can accept more from there.
Broker role
Erdogan has also taken on a mediating role in the Ukraine conflict, and has recently led negotiations on a corridor for grain exports out of Ukraine.
Putin does not rule out friction
In an analysis at Foreign Policy Middle East researcher Steven A. Cook writes that Erdogan is trying to use the crisis to establish Turkey as a great power.
– Turkey does not want to be assigned the role of a sentry on NATO’s southeastern flank again, Cook points out in the analysis.
CLOSE: Vladimir Putin has a closer relationship with Turkish President Recey Tayyip Erdogan than most other NATO leaders. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / Kremlin via AP
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Erdogan was very early in establishing contact with both parties in the war. Turkey has supported Ukraine’s border sovereignty during the war, but has not imposed sanctions on Russia as the West has.
No more real influence
Nevertheless, Bukkvoll does not believe that Erdogan has any particularly more real influence over Russia’s actions in Ukraine than other heads of state in NATO.
– The more Russia takes in Ukraine, the bigger his goals will be. That is the case regardless of what Erdogan or others may think, he says.
However, he believes there is a likely scenario where Erdogan’s influence over Putin could come in handy.
Putin friend removed from top job
– If we get into a situation this autumn where more people in Russia understand that it is not possible, that Russia will be forced into a more real negotiating situation, it is conceivable that Erdogan can play a more important role.
Also on the agenda in Tehran are reportedly drones. US authorities claim Iran should be willing to sell hundreds of drones to Russia, and to train them in their use.
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