The 88th episode of Tilannestudio discusses Russia’s expected big attack and Ukraine’s difficult frontline situation.
Recently, there has been exceptionally bad news about the situation in Ukraine. According to information from the US media Bloomberg, the front may break in the next few months. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said the German media ARD that Russia may start a new attack very soon.
Iltalehti’s war expert Emil Kastehelmen according to Russia advances every week, but since the fall of Avdijivka, the progress has been small-scale.
Russia’s new major attack would probably be timed for spring or summer. There’s a good reason for that.
– The Russians know that Ukraine is at its weakest in late spring and early summer. The mobilization laws have not had time to bring relief to men’s problems, and among other things, the munitions unexpectedly “discovered” by the Czechs and Estonians have not had time to arrive at the front, at least in massive amounts.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed Ukraine’s new activation law on Tuesday, the purpose of which is to get more soldiers to the front. At the beginning of April, Estonia announced that it had delivered to Ukraine, in addition to ammunition, anti-ballistic missiles and single-launchers, and the Czech Republic sent, among other things, battle tanks.
This is where the big attack would head
According to Kastehelmi, the Russian summer offensive would probably head to the Donetsk region and there especially to the cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Taking over the cities would be laborious, but Russia can now try its luck.
– However, Donetsk is one of these most central political goals, which we are really far from achieving.
The map shows the possible directions of Russia’s summer offensive. Black Bird Group / Openstreetmap
Another option is that Russia operates especially in the Zaporizhzhia region further south.
If Russia were to succeed in making a breakthrough in a region where progress has been very difficult in the past, this could at best confuse the internal politics of Ukraine and also the ranks of the West for Russia.
However, Kastehelmi does not believe that Ukraine could lose the entire war as a result of Russia’s summer attack or have to agree to extremely bad peace terms. It would require very dramatic changes.
– It is also very possible that the summer offensive will not take off and it will be a really expensive and big failure for Russia.
Special reporter Emil Kastehelmi is one of the founders of the Black Bird Group, which follows the situation at the front of the war in Ukraine. The team follows the development of the war in Ukraine through open sources and updates the situation on The War in Ukraine online map.
Russia’s expected summer offensive may also fail miserably. In the photo, a Ukrainian soldier shows ammunition in connection with exercises organized in Donetsk on March 15. EPA/AOP
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