The latest edition of the economic survey on housing market, conducted by the Bank of Italy, in collaboration with the Revenue Agency and Tecnoborsa (company of the chamber of commerce system), reports for the first time since the first edition, dating back to 2009, that house prices are rising. The survey is carried out on 1,425 agencies across the country and the share of those who report rising prices from July to September exceeds, albeit slightly, those who believe there are falling values.
Obviously, these are opinions collected by macro-areas and the data reflects the average market trend. Cities like Milan, for example, have seen a very different trend in sales prices from 2009 to today, with a very marked recovery in some neighborhoods, especially in the last few quarters.
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Two signs that dampen enthusiasm
Expectations are also for a slight recovery in prices; but there are two signs that would recommend dampening the optimism a little: the discount compared to the asking price is slightly increasing (exaggerated requests for poor quality properties the cause), the demand would be registering a decline. There is also a third reason to advise caution: beyond 70 percent of the transactions are mortgage-backed; an increase in rates would inevitably end up having consequences on the market.
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The numbers
But let’s see some numbers in more detail. In Italy, 67.2% of opinions on price trends are stable, 16.2% increases and 16.2% decreases. The share of those reporting an increase is much higher in large cities (over 250,000 inhabitants) and in metropolitan areas. In the North West the share of agents who indicate a plus sign in large cities exceeds 25%, in the North East the percentage is close to 29. The numbers on price expectations are very similar. 54.7% of the sales ended with a price discount of less than 10% but if we consider only the big cities we arrive at 60% in the Italian average and 65% in the North East and North West. Sales take an average of 6.4 months, but in the large cities of the North West they are reduced to just over 5. Where houses cost more, there is greater recourse to mortgages: the national figure is 71.3 % of sales assisted by financing, with a peak of 78.4% in the urban areas of the North West.
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The data of the Ltv is homogeneous
The Ltv data (the sum borrowed as a percentage of the price of the house) is very homogeneous: we are at 77.8%. We remind you that for loans with Ltv higher than 80 it is necessary to offer additional guarantees in addition to the mortgage. Compared to the previous quarter. It should be emphasized that the increase in Ltv is modest, only two tenths of a point compared to that of the previous quarter, but it is logical to expect an increase in the next surveys because the market should see subsidized mortgages for the under 36s, who have Ltv higher than 80 and can go up to 100.
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The positive effects of the pandemic
Finally, two topical notations: 35.2% of agents maintain that the pandemic has in any case had a positive effect on the demand for housing and a very little higher share (35.6%) believe that the effect has been negative. A third of brokers claim that the superbonus is having a positive effect on the market, especially with regard to independent homes. But destined to last only a few more months, if the budget bill it will not be changed by Parliament.
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