A Chinese space rocket is crashing around the Earth at a speed of almost 28,000 kilometers per hour, and it is getting closer and closer. This weekend it will fall to Earth, but no one knows exactly where.
The launch of the Long March 5B rocket last week was celebrated as a great success in China. The 30-meter-long spacecraft carried with it the first part of what will be the Chinese’s new space station.
China is in a hurry to take the lead, even in space.
– Now they are speeding up. They will do everything in a year and a half, says space expert Keith Cowing.
On the way to Earth
When you are in a hurry, things can go a little awry. Although the space station arrived safely, the Chinese had no plan for the huge launch vehicle. It is now thrown aside as space debris, and on its way back into the Earth’s atmosphere at a speed of 28,000 kilometers per hour.
– The recommendations are that you should get this down in a controlled way, as many do today, says head of department at the Norwegian Space Center, Yngvild Linnea Andalsvik.
But China did not have time to take such considerations, so now the big tension is where the 22 tons of metal will land, and when.
Andalsvik thinks it will happen on Sunday. The only thing she can say with certainty is that it will not land in Norway, but further south.
– There is a chance that it hits in populated areas, but most of the Earth’s surface is the sea, Andalsvik says.
Last year, parts of a Chinese rocket hit remote areas of West Africa. Experts believe it was just a coincidence that it did not hit New York.
– This is potentially not good. The last time they fired a Long March 5B rocket, it ended up with large metal parts flying through the sky, damaging several buildings in the Ivory Coast, says astrophysicist at Harvard University, Jonathan McDowell to The Guardian.
Most probably burn up
There is a high probability that the rocket will burn up when it hits the Earth’s atmosphere, but large wreckage will probably hit the Earth.
– It is always difficult to know how much of the mass survives, and how many fragments it divides into, without knowing the design of the object. But a rule of thumb is that between 20 and 40 percent of the mass survives, says security manager at the European Space Company, Holger Krag, according to Business Insider.
It will not be until the last minute that it will be clear where the rocket will end up on Sunday.
– Will they be enough time to start evacuating for example?
– It is not known precisely enough where it will end up that it will have any purpose, Andalsvik says.
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