When Norway closed on March 12, few people thought that the pandemic would affect our lives to such an extent – 22 months later.
In 2020, we waited for it to pass. We longed for 2021 where everything would be fine.
In 2021, we have encouraged each other that we will soon be vaccinated. It should solve most things.
Now, as the year draws to a close, something has happened. It is almost as if we have stopped hoping for 2022.
Then it is actually a pretty good consolation that those who have worked around the clock with pandemic management in Norway, have a brighter future.
TV 2 has asked them how they think we will live with the corona in 2022. The answers are surprisingly uplifting.
The way out of the pandemic
If there is one thing we have learned about the virus, it is that it does not help much with high vaccine coverage in Norway, if the borders are open and the protection is low in other countries.
– I think 2022 will be the year where the vast majority of people on earth are offered vaccines and where global immunity will gradually strengthen, says assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad.
That the world’s poor countries get the doses they need is the key.
– PROTECTION: In December, about 60 percent of Europe’s population was vaccinated with two doses, compared to about 9 percent in Africa. Here, a resident is vaccinated at a vaccine center in Laos, Nigeria. Photo: Sunday Alamba / AP
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Nakstad refers to the large volume of vaccines produced each month and the planned adjustments that will make the vaccine more accurate against omikron.
– It will give us a much better immunity, and that is what we need to get out of this pandemic. Then the virus will spread at a much lower rate and not change as much, he says.
The biggest concern has always been that the virus mutates to become more deadly.
– We need corona to be a seasonal virus that only occurs in the winter and does not bother us the rest of the year. It will be the first step on the way out of the pandemic, says Nakstad.
– A GOOD YEAR: Assistant Director of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad believes that 2022 can be a good “corona year”. Photo: Ingvild Gjerdsjø / TV 2
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A more normal life
Nakstad does not believe that the global pandemic is over in 2022, but that it will have less of an impact on our lives.
– I think we will have a more normal life and that the situation will improve in large parts of the world during the next year, he says.
NIPH director Camilla Stolenberg says that she has become accustomed to thinking in scenarios as the uncertainty has been great during the pandemic. According to her, the picture Nakstad draws is realistic.
I think we will have a more normal life
– One scenario, which is what we hope for, is that the vaccines together with a certain spread of infection will provide such good immunity in the population that we tolerate new varieties and waves better, and avoid intrusive measures. In that case, it will be a good 2022, she says.
This gives hope that we will avoid new rounds with heavy measures. The question is whether we can drop all the rules, or whether we still have to live with some of the simplest routines.
– MOUTHBIND: Hopefully 2022 will be the year where we can cope with the simplest infection control measures. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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– How this will be in the future is uncertain. I believe that we must live with being at home when we are sick, test ourselves in certain contexts and keep our distance and wear a face mask, even though the rest of society is open, says Nakstad.
The global pandemic will only be over when the virus no longer spreads in a pandemic and only breaks out in winter seasons from time to time. Then the disease can be compared to the flu.
– When we get there, it’s hard to say. It may take a couple of years. I still think we can look towards brighter times and an everyday life that is governed by something other than the corona long before that, but we have some obstacles we must overcome, says Nakstad.
– IMMUNITY: Nakstad believes that we will have better immunity in 2022. Photo: Goran Jorganovich / TV 2
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We can look towards brighter times and an everyday life governed by something other than the corona
Some obstacles in the way
There are already signs at the end of December that the delta outbreak is stagnating. Omikron is concerned, but has spread more slowly in Norway than first thought.
How sick you get from omikron will be decisive for the next year, as the health authorities believe there is little doubt that it will take over.
– It seems that omikron does not lead to more serious disease, it is probably less serious than previous variants, but it is too early to say for sure, says Nakstad.
Although FHI hopes for the best, they must also prepare for the worst.
The second scenario they envisage is very similar to the uncertainty we have faced towards the end of 2021.
– We can get new varieties that increase the spread of infection considerably and increase the disease burden. We also do not know how the wave we are now in will behave, but hopefully it will be short-lived with a quick reopening, says Stoltenberg.
– VACCINE: FHI director Camilla Stoltenberg believes how 2022 will behave depends on how well protected we are in the world through vaccine. Here she gets her third dose in December. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
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In the worst case, more people will be hospitalized and more people will die with corona. Then we will have to live with measures for a longer period of time.
– We must keep the possibilities open for both scenarios and more, says Stoltenberg.
Another, more uplifting theory is that the omicron is the beginning of the end.
Better situation already in the spring
Health director Bjørn Guldvog believes that the corona will mark the beginning of 2022 before the situation improves towards spring.
– There is hope that we will see a different picture as we approach spring. We still do not know much about the omikron variant, but the information we have suggests that it may be a little milder, he says.
– LOAD: Employees in the health service have been under great pressure during the pandemic. If omikron leads to a milder course of the disease, this is good news for the capacity of the hospitals. Photo: Simen Askjer / TV 2
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As many are protected with the third dose, he believes that we will be well protected against the new variant. Then those who become infected will have a relatively mild course of the disease.
– In that case, it will provide an opportunity for a more open society in the time to come, he says.
When Guldvog is asked what is the worst possible outcome for 2022, the threat is the same as it has been since the start of the pandemic.
– It is that we can get a new and unknown variant that gets a new letter, and which neither responds to the vaccines we have taken and which is as contagious as omicron, and which is at least as serious. Then it will be very demanding, he says.
It is also likely that omicron is more contagious and takes over, while being less dangerous. In that case, it will be the best possible outcome.
– It may mean that omikron is a step that makes us near the end, says Guldvog.
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