This is how we become good war profiteers

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Petroleum revenues are going up right in the oil fund, and so far this year it has fallen sharply in value – from 12,300 billion kroner at New Year, to about 11,200 billion on Wednesday this week. That is a fall of nine percent. Norges Bank has a real-time view of the value of the fund, and if you go to the website you can see that the number is ticking down. The fall could be big. The room for maneuver in the state budget can thus still be tight, in that we will in principle only spend 3 per cent of the return from the fund.

There will also be a bunch of purposes screaming for money. Increased prices for electricity, petrol and diesel and food will certainly trigger demands for lower taxes or other compensation for Norwegian consumers. Defense spending will have to be increased.

In such an extraordinary situation, it is important to set some overarching principles for prioritization. We suggest three:

• The extraordinary petroleum revenues provide a responsibility to show solidarity, in the form of extra assistance and help to those affected by the war.
• Increased expenses for Norwegian consumers should be compensated in a way that takes into account distribution. Those with the least must get more.
• We must also think new about investments in restructuring, a sharp increase in offshore wind investment can be one example. Norway must play on a team with a Europe that will both cut emissions and become independent of Russian energy.

The crucial thing is nevertheless, the use of money takes place in a way that does not lead us into a negative economic spiral, so that the economy is put out of control. Jonas Gahr Støre and the government will have a major responsibility for managing Norway’s finances in a war economy. If Norway plays the cards correctly, we can contribute to a time of destiny for Europe.

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