Most likely, Russia will increase hybrid operations against Moldova due to EU membership negotiations, estimates the US think tank.
The location of Transnistria is challenging for Russia. Morti ash, adobe stock
The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) lists the actions that Russia can take after the request for help presented by the Transnistrian parliament.
The leadership of the separatist region asked Russia for protection against pressure from the Moldovan government.
Most likely, based on the request, Russia will increase hybrid operations to destabilize Moldovan politics and society ahead of June’s negotiations on Moldova’s EU membership and December’s Moldovan presidential elections, in order to delay Moldova’s accession to the EU.
In the most dangerous scenario, Russia would decide to annex Transnistria to justify a military operation against Moldova in the longer term. However, according to ISW’s information, there are no clear signs of this.
In addition, Russia’s military intervention in the region is challenging, because Moldova is located inland, which can only be reached through Romanian or Ukrainian airspace, or alternatively through Odessa, Ukraine, which would require a large-scale ground operation.
Other possible scenarios
In one scenario, Russia does nothing based on the request for help, but action may be taken later.
In another scenario, Russia increases diplomatic pressure on Moldova to withdraw its new customs law, which Transnistria is particularly opposed to. Customs rules are a reform in line with EU regulations that Moldova needs to become a member of the EU.
The Kremlin may also decide to give Transnistria more economic aid, humanitarian aid or new trade deals to pressure the Moldovan economy and the country to abandon the customs.
In the third scenario, Russia may also try to send additional military aid to the Transnistrian forces, but this will be difficult due to the location of the region. According to ISW, military aid could mean more Russian “peacekeepers”, military equipment or weapons.
According to ISW, the mentioned activities are not mutually exclusive.
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