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This is how Pennsylvania works: the state that will probably decide the US election

On November 5th, the USA will elect a new president. A huge country is deciding on its next head of state – and yet only a few states will tip the scales. Like Pennsylvania, one of the “Battleground States”. But what motivates voters in Pennsylvania?

In addition to data and facts, this text also contains Lukas Hermsmeier’s impressions and assessments. Find out about the different types of journalistic texts.

“At first I mentioned Trump,” Marty says, pinching his lips. “I thought he would shake up politics as an outsider.”

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Marty (67) spoke out against Donald Trump in the 2016 election and is sure he will not vote for Trump in November.

Marty talks about 2016, when Trump ran for president for the first time, against Hillary Clinton. Over the course of the election campaign, it became clear to him what kind of guy Trump was: “Selfish and dishonest,” as Marty says. “Trump wants to be a dictator.”

The sun shines over Pittsburgh, the second largest city in the state of Pennsylvania, on this October afternoon. Fantastic autumn weather. Marty, 67 years old, a man with a red checkered shirt and a long white beard, sits on a plastic chair in front of his house. There are tables set up in front of him with used tools and knick-knacks that he is trying to sell.

After decades as a “stage hand,” as set-up helpers for events are called, his pension alone is not enough. Marty sees the structural problems. “The economy just doesn’t work in this country,” he says, taking a sip from his water bottle. “Our wealth is not distributed fairly.”

Frustration with the election campaign: “Can’t wait for it to be over soon”

The state of Pennsylvania, where Marty lives, is one of the so-called “battleground states” in the US presidential election on November 5th. These are the states that are open to the outcome and at the same time have great weight given their population size. In addition to Pennsylvania, this year there are Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. With 19 electors, Pennsylvania is the largest of the battleground states.

In 2016, Trump won the state by less than one percent. His success rested primarily on his scapegoating of the working class plagued by deindustrialization, namely immigrants and the Washington elite. For many, the Democratic candidate Clinton embodied exactly that elite with her program and habitus. In 2020, Joe Biden was able to win back Pennsylvania for the Democrats. His lead was also less than one percent.

In current polls, this year’s Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, is just ahead of Trump. Marty is among those who will vote for Harris. “It’s the best alternative since Obama,” he says, albeit in a reserved tone. You can tell that Marty is fundamentally disappointed with politics. Too elitist, too much theater, as he describes it. “I can’t wait for the election campaign to be over soon.”

Pro Choice and pro Trump

Elaine Foust looks excited. The 71-year-old speaks quickly and a lot, opens her eyes when something is important to her, for example when it comes to the border with Mexico, “a gigantic problem,” as she says. Her turquoise T-shirt reads “Women for Trump.” Her pink cap has the same inscription.

Foust lives in the city of York, southeastern Pennsylvania. 45,000 inhabitants, a large proportion of them Hispanics. On this day, Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz is a guest and will give a speech at the Expo Center. Because Pennsylvania is so important for the entire election, the leading candidates from both parties are currently there almost every week. Hundreds of campaign workers go from door to door to mobilize.

Foust is one of a small group of Trump voters gathered near the entrance. They want to “show their face,” as she explains. Foust is the only one who talks to the press. The others wave away.

Fox News conspiracies

For a long time she was a non-voter, says Foust. But Trump immediately convinced her as a “businessman” who stood for “American values.” When asked which values ​​are particularly important to her, she answers “freedom” and then says that she is “pro choice”, i.e. for the right to abortion. She does not see the fact that Trump and the Republicans are massively fighting this right as a contradiction. “They just want the states to be able to decide on this on their own.”

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Elaine Foust (71) from Pennsylvania is certain that she will vote for Donald Trump in the presidential election on November 5th this year. © Lukas Hermsmeier

On the other hand, there is a lot that bothers her about the Democratic Party. She speaks of drag queens “who indoctrinate children in schools,” allegedly at the direction of the Democrats. She says Kamala Harris bought “criminal protesters” out of prison. These are exactly the right-wing conspiracies that Fox News, your favorite channel, broadcasts every evening.

At no point in the conversation is the mother of three as emotional as when it comes to the topic of inflation. “My life was better under Trump,” she says. “I had to apply for food stamps for the first time under Biden.” That did something to her pride. Inflation is one of the top concerns of the American people. And many blame the democratic government for this.

Undecided about Gaza

While the vast majority of Americans, like Elaine Foust, have long since made their decision, six percent of registered voters are still undecided, according to current polls. It will be crucial for Republicans and Democrats to score points among this demographic.

Kirsten R. is one of them. The 42-year-old lives in Pittsburgh and works as an accountant. She justifies her indecision by saying she is against Israel’s war in Gaza, which is being made possible by the democratically led US government. “I don’t want to reward the Democrats for their deadly policies.” She doesn’t seem happy when she says that that’s why she’s wavering between Harris and a small left-wing party.

She is anything but alone in her frustration with the government’s behavior. According to various studies, the majority of the American population has long been in favor of a ban on arms distribution to Israel.

When asked what she sees as the biggest concerns facing people in Pittsburgh, she cites rising rents and costs of living, the healthcare system and climate change. Neither of the two major parties offers real solutions to these problems, said R. However, in their immediate environment, no other issue is as dominant as the war in Gaza.

Updated on October 22, 2024, 7:33 a.m

Anyone who thought that Donald Trump would be moderate in his third presidential candidacy was wrong. The Republican continues to insult his competitors, criticize migrants and praise autocrats all over the world. Nevertheless, he has a good chance of being re-elected US President.

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