PressSplit
Scholz wants to ask the question of trust after the traffic lights go out in January. It could be a long time before a new government is formed, according to an expert.
Berlin – Almost a twist of numbers, because it is actually traditionally November 9th that heralds changes in fate in Germany. This time it was November 6th. On the day Donald Trump was re-elected US President, the federal government collapsed. The Chancellor announced that evening Olaf Scholz the dismissal of the finance minister Christian Lindner and thus the traffic light goes out.
The next day, Germany oscillates between shock and bewilderment – and is faced with the question: What happens next? In any case, it could be a very long time before we have a new government, says Philipp Austermann. He is a professor of constitutional law at the central teaching area of the Federal University of Public Administration in Brühl. He said in an interview that he didn’t expect the traffic lights to go out at that point IPPEN.MEDIA: “That was a surprise.”
Lindner after traffic light exit: He is entitled to a transitional allowance
First direct consequence: Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Justice Minister Marco Buschmann and Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger – all of them FDP – will receive their discharge certificates on Thursday (November 7th). One person has already been decided: Jörg Kukies, a close advisor to Scholz, will be Lindner’s successor.
Will Lindner and the other ex-FDP ministers still receive money? No, says Philipp Austermann: “The term of office of the dismissed ministers ends with the presentation of the certificates. Then the regular payments also end. However, in such a case, there are transition payments for ministers who have left.” After just one day in office, federal ministers are entitled to around 81,000 euros in transition money. Depending on the length of the term of office, the sum can rise to almost 243,000 euros. The money is offset against other income. For elected officials, i.e. members of the Bundestag who also receive diets, the transition allowance will be lower.
Scholz wants to ask a question of trust in January: What happens next?
What happens next in the coming months? One thing is clear: Olaf Scholz wants to ask the question of trust in mid-January. What happens if he passes it? “If, contrary to expectations, Olaf Scholz passes the vote of confidence, he will have no opportunity to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. Then he would have to continue with a minority government with little quorum until the end of the legislature,” explains Austermann. That shouldn’t be in the Chancellor’s interest, according to the expert.
But: Why does Scholz wait until January instead of asking the question of trust directly and ensuring clarity? Probably to gain time, Austermann says: “I suspect that he wants to make his positions prominent in the following election campaign. Either to let the Bundestag vote on it. Or, to demonstrate: We would have implemented these points if the FDP had not pulled out.”
The opposition is now demanding that Scholz clear the way for new elections in the coming days. “The traffic light coalition has led the country into a government and trust vacuum and there is no reason to delay the new political beginning until March 2025,” said CDU Bundestag member Serap Güler, who is also on the party’s federal executive board IPPEN.MEDIA. “The theater in Berlin must finally come to an end so that professionalism and seriousness can return,” said Güler. The opposition’s demand is entirely understandable, says expert Austermann. “Because the sooner we would have a new government again.”
After the traffic lights are turned off: the new government may not come until the summer or later
However, as things stand, this could take until summer 2025 or longer. Austermann calculates: “If Olaf Scholz loses the vote of confidence on January 15th and the Federal President dissolves the Bundestag a few days later, new elections must take place within 60 days afterwards. As a rule, this deadline is exhausted because elections require preparations.” The new Bundestag must meet another 60 days later. Then any coalition negotiations begin. “This could drag on into May if things happen quickly. However, if there is another choking like last time, it will take significantly longer.”
What possible constellations might look like is currently still unclear. SPD However, given the very clear words from Olaf Scholz and Christian Lindner on Wednesday evening, the FDP and the FDP will probably no longer be good friends any time soon. Austermann believes that this may have consequences for the election campaign: “Such an end to the coalition is always dangerous for the actors involved. Because statements can of course come back to you later if necessary.”
