This is how autumn will be for you:

Prime Minister Erna Solberg and Minister of Health Bent Høie have announced that Norway will probably be able to move to a normal everyday life with increased preparedness in September. Health director Bjørn Guldvog explains to Dagbladet how he envisages the corona situation developing over the next few months.

– We are unsure of what the situation will look like as we have no other countries to look to. No country has achieved a population immunity (herd immunity journ.anm.) That ensures that covid-19 infection goes down. We can be among the first in the world to achieve this as a result of high vaccine coverage in the population, says Guldvog to Dagbladet, but emphasizes that this is uncertain.

He estimates that a large proportion of the population will be fully vaccinated by the end of September, and that a large proportion of 16- and 17-year-olds will have received at least one vaccine dose at that time.

To scenarioer

Guldvog highlights two possible scenarios for the autumn.

– At best, we will get such a strong population immunity that we manage to push the infection down among those younger than 16 years, as well as among unvaccinated adults. In that case, we need very few measures.

– But it is also possible that we may have so many unvaccinated adults and so much infection among children that we still have to deal with fairly large outbreaks and experience an increase in infection, even though we have a very high vaccine coverage. It may not be that likely, but it’s not impossible. In that case, we may have to continue some measures, but not close to such intrusive measures that have been taken until now.

– What do you think is the most likely scenario for the autumn?

– I think that we will most likely be able to go from step 4 in the reopening plan to a normal everyday life with increased preparedness in September or October.

– How likely is it that we will have to reintroduce measures after moving to a normal everyday life with increased preparedness?

– I think it is unlikely when it comes to intervention measures. At least such contact-reducing measures that we are familiar with now.

Pretty ordinary Christmas

The director of health believes that it is possible that we can experience a fairly ordinary Christmas celebration.

– There is reason to believe that the Christmas holidays will be quite common. Last autumn and Christmas we experienced an infection bloom after the holidays, but I do not think we will experience this problem this autumn and winter in the same way as we have done before.

– What do you think about that?

– In that case, it will be great. That is exactly what we want, that is why we offer vaccination and that is why we encourage even more people to accept the offer of vaccine. Even though we hope and believe that we will achieve a large enough vaccine coverage that we can phase out many measures, each vaccine that is taken will contribute to us reaching the goal of population immunity.

Vulnerable groups

The director of health says that three groups will be particularly vulnerable this autumn: Well-adults who have not been vaccinated, vaccinated people with weakened immune systems and children.

First, he says that we must do something to protect the well-adults who have not been vaccinated, but that it will not be proportionate with infection control measures that hit society widely. He then says that it is conceivable that people with a weakened immune system will be offered a third dose of vaccine if it turns out to be necessary to achieve good protection.

– But it is the children that we should pay the most attention to. It is very important that we do not overload them with measures, at the same time as we must take care of their health in the best possible way.

Child vaccination

Recently, the government decided that 16- and 17-year-olds should also be offered a vaccine against covid-19. In the future, the health authorities and the government will consider whether children up to the age of 12 should also be offered a vaccine.

– What is most beneficial for the children: That they undergo a natural infection or that they get vaccinated?

– This is really the question we are considering today. If the children do not receive the vaccine, we must take into account that they may have to undergo infection within a year or so.

On the one hand, Guldvog points to the risk that some children may develop side effects from covid-19 or the childhood syndrome MIS-C. On the other hand, they risk experiencing mild and transient side effects of the vaccines, as well as rare and serious side effects.

– This must also be weighed against what provides the best learning outcome, quality of life and continuity for school children. There are many arguments that point in the direction that we are served by vaccination rather than many children undergoing natural infection. The most important thing is that the decision falls on what is in the children’s best interests. The decision to vaccinate 12- to 15-year-olds will probably be made relatively soon.

– How soon?

– I can not say any date, but in good time before it becomes relevant to vaccinate children in that age group, and it will not be relevant until the 16- and 17-year-olds have been vaccinated.

Coronapasset

The EU has developed a system that facilitates travel between countries. As most Norwegians seem to be fully vaccinated during the autumn, it may be relevant for many to travel abroad.

– I believe that the corona certificate will be used for a long time for travel between countries. Especially when it comes to border testing, but perhaps also when it comes to entry quarantine in parts of the world. It must be remembered that New Zealand, for example, still has strict quarantine rules for all countries. Many countries are much later vaccinated than the countries in Europe, so I think the corona certificate will be used a lot for travel, says Guldvog and continues:

– At the same time, I believe that there will be a basis for abolishing requirements for corona certificates in many situations domestically if we get fairly good population immunity and see that the infection goes down. This is because we will then probably be protected to such an extent that it will not be so dangerous if there were individual cases. I can not say exactly when this will occur, whether it is in three months, six months or until next summer.

Reopening

It has soon been a year and a half since Guldvog and the Norwegian Directorate of Health made the decision to introduce the most intrusive measures in Norway in peacetime on behalf of the government and society. He says that it is still demanding to be health director.

– On the one hand, it is good to see that we are in a situation where we believe that many of the health consequences will not be as serious as we had feared. On the other hand, it is incredibly complicated to work towards reopening, and very difficult to predict what will happen, so it is still a demanding task.

– It is said that it is more difficult to open up than to close down.

– Now I would probably say that it was quite demanding to shut down as well. For us in the health administration and me personally, it was a pretty big burden. But it is clear that more fine-tuning is required when reopening, as the reopening will last over time. While when shutting down, the most important thing is that you act forcefully enough for it to have an effect.

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