Following a crisis from the US labor market in April, it is hoped that the indicators this week will show a continuation of the positive trends in May.
UNCHANGED: Senior economist Knut A. Magnussen of DNB does not believe that Sweden is moving into negative interest rates at this week’s interest rate decision.
– Stig B. Fiksdal
Published:
At home this week there will be unemployment figures on Friday.
Here are probably not the big surprises, after getting numbers every week.
– We have received weekly figures that have gone down a lot, so I think there will only be confirmation of these figures, says senior economist Knut A. Magnussen at DNB.
This means that the Norwegian labor market figures will create few ripple effects this month.
Read on E24 + (for subscribers)
On the inside of the wind power uprising in Europe
–
Expect good job numbers from the US
We also get a picture from the US from the labor market, but here there is more uncertainty following a surprising increase in the number of jobs last month.
Towards the end of this week, we will receive answers to the number of jobs created outside agriculture in the United States in June. They come on Thursday, not on the usual Friday, because of Independence Day on July 4th.
– There is a lot of uncertainty about the labor figures. Last month, employment rose, when everyone expected a decline, says Magnussen.
Then 2.5 million jobs were created in the United States in May. There was a big jump from a cut in the number of jobs of 20 million in April, the most ever in a month.
Figures from the US Department of Labor are expected to show that three million new jobs were created in June.
Magnussen points out that this has to do with more reopening of the economy.
– I’m surprised if we don’t move on.
Read on E24 + (for subscribers)
This way options can hedge against a new fall in the market
–
Industry on the rise
On Wednesday, the purchasing chief index comes from the ISM in the US. This is an important barometer for industrial activity.
Here it is expected that the index will end at just under 50. Values above 50 indicate growth in industries, while lower values mean decline.
The consensus is 49, according to DNB, and 45.9 according to Nordea. When surveyed by purchasing executives in the industry in May, the value of 43.1 ended.
– We will probably see a clear improvement, but the question is whether it will reach over 50 again. It works like this on the regional indices, says Magnussen.
Read on E24 + (for subscribers)
Curtains, fertilizers and fish on land: Here are the stocks you should aim for this summer
–
Unchanged from the Riksbank
The Swedish central bank will set interest rates on Wednesday. There, it is expected that Sweden will continue with interest rates of zero percent.
– But it can be a theme if they want to buy more securities, says Magnussen.
The Riksbank departed from negative interest rates no later than January this year, but it is unlikely that they will fall below zero again now.
– The experience of having negative interest rates has not been particularly good. There are clear disadvantages with negative interest rates, which were probably greater than the benefits, says Magnussen.
Inflation figures from the Eurozone
He points out that the US and the British central bank have also quit to enter into negative territory, staying just above zero.
The European Central Bank (ESB) has also failed to set interest rates even lower than today’s level. They have kept it unchanged at minus 0.50 percent during the corona crisis.
Consequently, inflation figures from the Eurozone on Tuesday will have no impact on the ECB’s interest rate decision.
– All central banks are already running a strong stimulus policy to raise inflation, says Magnussen.
From the US Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve, we get a note from the previous interest rate meeting. Magnussen does not expect this to be a market driver, although it may appear that there was disagreement on the previous interest rate decision among the central bank’s representatives.
– It seemed like there was a big consensus during the previous interest rate meeting that the interest rate should remain where it is.
–
