Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – After funds from greenshoe option to stabilize the stock price of PT GoTo Gojek, Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) ran out, its shares continued to decline and are now far below the IPO price.
GOTO’s shares closed down 6.31% at the level of Rp. 208 and were hit by a lower auto reject (ARB) in yesterday’s trading, Thursday (12/5/2022).
For information, GOTO was officially listed on the domestic stock exchange on April 11, 2022 by releasing 40.6 billion shares equivalent to 3.43% of the issued and fully paid capital at a price of Rp. 338/unit.
GOTO’s stock price has consistently moved in the red zone throughout this week. That way, since the IPO the market capitalization value startup decacorn this one has already lost 38.5% of its market cap.
Sentiment is not very supportive. Global technology stocks are alsodestroyed-ancuran‘. Monetary tightening by the US central bank The Fed is the culprit.
The fall in stock prices, especially the global technology sector, also contributed to the collapse of the JCI. Even the appreciation that occurred since the beginning of the year was almost completely eroded, leaving a mini return of less than 0.5%.
Whereas before the holiday, the JCI still gave a gain of almost 10% or equivalent to last year’s return. The JCI correction was also triggered by the sinking of GOTO’s shares, considering that since the listing, GOTO’s market cap was the fifth largest on the stock exchange.
However, with the correction that continues to plague this one superapps stock, what are the future prospects of GOTO’s business and what is its intrinsic value?
There are several notes that can be drawn from the research of Niko Margaronis, an analyst with BRI Danareksa Sekuritas. In his report, Niko explained that after the merger with Tokopedia in 2021, GoTo had integrated three essential business lines, namely on demand, e-commerce and fintech.
These three will make GOTO’s Gross Transaction Value (GTV) grow rapidly. Niko estimates that GTV GOTO can grow by 30% compounding from 2021-2025.
Furthermore, Niko explained that the e-commerce and fintech business segments will make a positive contribution to achieving breakeven in terms of Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) in line with GOTO’s ability to maintain its market share. GOTO itself estimates that EBIT will start to be positive in 2023.
Another competitive advantage that GOTO has according to Niko is that it is backed by global technology shareholders who already have a solid track record of building businesses such as Alibaba, Alphabet, Tencent to Microsoft.
GOTO will also continue to innovate in the field of technology by adopting blockchain technology to developing the metaverse.
In terms of valuation, Niko uses the Price to Gross Merchandise Value (P/GMV) model in each of GOTO’s business units.
Valuation multiples used is 0.8x P/GMV for the on demand and e-commerce segments and 0.3x for the fintech segment and the intrinsic value of GOTO shares is IDR 400/unit.
When referring to the model developed by Niko, GOTO’s share price is now being discounted by almost 50% from its fair price.
CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM
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