In the last 24 hours, almost 21,519 coronary heart disease were confirmed in Norway. This is despite the fact that the requirement for a PCR test has been replaced by a rapid test, so far fewer infected people are caught in the messaging system.
Although FHI no longer uses infection rates as a key measure to monitor the pandemic, the infection is not irrelevant.
It is in the cards that we must cross the peak of infection for the health authorities to believe that it is justifiable to open society up completely.
Significant relief
The government has called for a corona press conference next Tuesday, and the government has already signaled significant coronal relief.
Both The Norwegian Directorate of Health and FHI believes it is right to open up, but recommends that it be done gradually. Thus, full reopening is unlikely before the peak of infection is reached.
– We are a little unsure when the peak of infection will be, but we believe that it will come during February, says Vold.
Two weeks ago it was estimated that we would reach the top of the wave at the turn of the month January-February. Now the infection will probably increase for a few more weeks.
Both the United Kingdom, Denmark and several other countries in Europe believe they have put the highest infection rates behind them.
– Have we held back too long?
– We have been a bit behind the UK and Denmark all the time, but we think there are many different reasons for this. It is also not possible to establish exactly when omikron came to the different countries, says Vold.
I the risk report FHI writes that the longer we doubt measures, the longer the epidemic lasts.
– Significant relief has been signaled, but no one has said that there will be a full reopening, so we have to wait and see, says Vold.
– MEASURES: Department director Line Vold is secretive about which measures they want to scrap and keep. Photo: Goran Jorganovich / TV 2
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Three scenarios
NIPH has tried to estimate the consequences that three different times for reopening may have for the capacity of the health service.
- A full reopening of society on February 1 could lead to a significant wave of admissions peaking at 250 to 350 daily admissions in the second half of February and early March. This corresponds to approximately 1000 simultaneously admitted to the top.
- If full reopening takes place on 15 February, the model will find a peak in daily admissions of between 100 and 300, with between 7000 and 900 admitted at the top.
- If reopening instead takes place on March 1, the model will find a peak of between 50 and 250 daily admissions, with 300 to 600 admissions at the top.
In the various scenarios, they estimate that between three and four million people are infected, of which between twelve and thirteen thousand have to be hospitalized.
The later we open, the lower the burden on the health service. It also means that the longer we keep the measures, the longer the pandemic.
– The measures cost a lot, restrict freedom and are in some ways and for some groups probably worse than the epidemic would be, it says in the report.
Can step down
In any case, FHI believes that most measures in society can be gradually reduced over a short period of time, without in the long run giving a significantly increased disease burden.
– We are not done with the pandemic for a while, but we are in a new phase. The Omikron variant gives a slightly different picture of the disease. This means that we handle the wave a little differently with smaller measures and still have control, says Vold.
The measures with the greatest burden of action for children and young people should be removed first, FHI believes.
The Norwegian Directorate of Health believes that all measures other than wood will be repealed soon. They believe that we still have to wear bandages, be at home when we are sick and test ourselves for symptoms for a while longer.
Nakstad about relief: This should be eased first
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