Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Throughout October, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has experienced a significant increase. Unfortunately, starting in November, the performance of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) benchmark index was not good.
The good news is that there are stocks that have potential how in this month.
Trading data noted, at market close, Tuesday (2/11/2021), the JCI closed down 0.91% at 6,493 with a transaction value of Rp 11.37 trillion.
Entering the end of the current quarter IV-2021, Vice President of PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia, Michael Setjoadi assesses that historically government spending will be massive at the end of the year.
In addition, with the decline in Covid-19 cases and the easing of the community activity restriction program (PPKM), economic activity has started to run again.
“We see the attractive sectors are property, digital, financial sector, and construction,” he said on CNBC Indonesia TV’s Investtime program quoted Tuesday (2/11/2021).
“So, in my opinion, this sector will be attractive until the end of the year. With high commodity prices, I am sure to increase the property sector as well,” he said again.
Michael predicts, JCI until the end of the year will still strengthen to the level of 6,700. In a sense, from now on there is no significant increase in potential.
“Actually, the JCI has risen quite high in the last month from early October when the PPKM was relaxed and in the near future there will be some external factors,” he said.
The external factors in question include the release of economic growth in the third quarter of 2021, the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting by the US central bank, The Fed, which is taking place tomorrow, Wednesday (3/11/2021).
“This is also an important event for the global and Indonesian markets. Because we will know whether the Fed will start tapering or delay the tapering process (liquidity easing),” he said.
RHB Sekuritas Indonesia projects that the Fed will start tapering or reducing bond purchases.
However, tapering is done slowly and there will be no taper tantrums like 2013 ago. A taper tantrum is a market response that occurs first when the Fed announces tapering.
Even the Fed’s interest rate increase, said Michael, is expected to occur at the end of 2022.
“So the process of tapering within the next two to four quarters.”
On the other hand, it is also expected that there will be disruption from supply chain [rantai pasok] global market, due to the increasing demand in the global market. This makes demand and purchasing power weaken.
“One of the biggest impacts is consumer related. Especially from retail, all retail sectors in the third quarter of 2021 will tend to weaken,” he said.
“So let’s look at stocks like Unilever [UNVR], Japfa [JPFA], we see that the cross margin is corrected quite a lot,” Michael continued.
To note, after having strengthened in early trading, the JCI ended up in the convict zone this Tuesday (2/11/2021). JCI sinks and exits the 6,500 level.
As of the close of trading, the index dropped 0.91% to 6,493.28. It was observed that 163 stocks rose, 368 stocks fell and 143 stocks remained stagnant.
In the midst of the JCI correction, foreigners sold their shares as reflected in the net sell in the regular market amounting to Rp 98.3 billion. The transaction value reached Rp 11.37 trillion.
(bag bag)
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