The International Criminal Court in The Hague (ICC) on Monday started hearings on the invasion of Ukraine. This happens after 39 member countries, including Norway, have referred the war to the court.
Ukraine is not itself a member state, but the court can investigate war crimes in the country because member states have requested it and because Ukraine has given the ICC permission to investigate crimes on Ukrainian territory.
According to several experts, the road to a potential verdict both long and intricate.
– The investigation is underway. It can lead to arrest warrants for those suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
This is what professor of international law Terje Einarsen at the University of Bergen says, who has international criminal law as his specialty.
– DESTRUCTIONS: Men at a housing blog who were injured in an attack near the city of Chernihiv on March 4. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP / NTB
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Probable with indictment
The investigation also includes genocide, as well as war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Einarsen says that the ICC does not have the competence to prosecute Vladimir Putin in a separate indictment regarding the war of aggression.
– The Chief Prosecutor and the Court may take that crime into account in the prosecution and conviction of war crimes. This applies right up to the sentencing. It will exacerbate the seriousness of the war crimes Putin may be held responsible for.
– ARREST ORDER: Professor Terje Einarsen believes it is likely that Putin will be charged and that there will be an arrest warrant from the ICC. Photo: Tommy Storhaug / TV 2
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The professor believes that Putin can get the ICC’s most stringent staff, which is life imprisonment, if the case goes so far. This presupposes that he is then arrested.
– How likely do you think it is that Putin himself will be charged?
– It is very likely that he will be charged and that there will be an arrest warrant if the war is not stopped soon, Einarsen says.
Arrest is more difficult
Russia, like Ukraine, is not a member of the ICC, but it does not matter because the crimes in question have been committed on the territory of Ukraine and Ukraine has given the ICC authority.
When it comes to arrest, it is basically much more difficult, according to Einarsen. This will presuppose that he is overthrown.
– It will not be possible for Putin to travel to other countries that do not give him guarantees in advance. He may also be arrested by non-member countries, such as the United States and, in principle, China. It is still unlikely as long as he is in power in Russia.
Einarsen points out that it has effects in itself if you go out with charges and arrest warrants.
– DISAGREE: The professors do not agree on the likelihood of Vladimir Putin being convicted in the International Criminal Court. Photo: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters / NTB
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Must change regime to
Professor of criminology Kjersti Lohne at the University of Oslo does not believe that Putin will be convicted immediately.
– The probability is low, and there are several reasons for that. One is that Russia is not a member of the court and will not accept jurisdiction.
She believes that a change of regime is needed in Russia for this to happen.
– PROBABILITY: Professor Kjersti Lohne believes the probability of Vladimir Putin being convicted in the ICC is low. Photo: UiO
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– Then one can imagine that new leaders choose to cooperate with the international community to hold the old regime accountable. It is conceivable that such a collaboration with the ICC will take place.
Lohne says that while this may seem hopeless, it is not.
– There are many positive aspects to the ICC being mobilized by states to the extent that it has now been done. First, investigation can have a deterrent effect on carrying out acts of war. Not that I think it has anything to do with Putin, but with military leaders on the ground.
The second is that the investigation will play a very important role in highlighting the abuses that are taking place today. She also believes that the support of countries that are now joining forces for a full-scale investigation is significant.
– There are large groups that will now work with the ICC to find evidence. Then it is the political support that may not only be a hope, but a reminder that action works and politics means something.
Can zone in Norway
Although Lohne does not believe that Putin will be convicted, she says that in recent years it has been seen how unpredictable the future is. Especially when it comes to global threats and ways to address them.
She adds that previous attempts have been made to go after heads of state, such as Sudan’s former president, Omar Al-Bashir.
– He traveled to South Africa, Chad and other places. These were states that are members of the ICC and are obliged to arrest and send him to court. Whether states will step up and arrest Putin, who is a far stronger leader, remains to be seen.
She also says:
– If Putin is to be convicted, he can just as well serve time in Norway. We have a sentencing agreement with the International Criminal Court.
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