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New polls on the swing state of Pennsylvania are putting a damper on the Democrats ahead of the 2024 US election: Kamala Harris is suddenly behind Trump again.
Washington, DC – There are still about three months to go, but new polls for the 2024 US election are being published almost every day, predicting how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will fare. Who will be the new US president? That is what almost the entire world is asking itself at the moment, with anxious eyes on the numbers.
Current poll numbers for the 2024 US election are now bringing sobering news for the Democrats: Kamala Harris is behind Trump three times in a row. It is the important swing state of Pennsylvania in which Kamala Harris is losing again, according to new polls.
Harris trails Trump in swing state poll for third time in a row
In a survey by Insider Advantage Trump is now slightly ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania with 46.6 percent compared to 46 percent. However, the statistical margin of error is three percent, so Trump’s lead is not particularly meaningful. 800 US voters were surveyed between August 18 and 19.
New polls for the 2024 US election put Kamala Harris of the Democrats behind Donald Trump of the Republicans. © IMAGO/Star Shooter
However, two other polls also predict a lead for Trump in Pennsylvania. The Republican candidate is leading in a poll of RMG Research with 46 percent ahead of Harris (45 percent). If undecided voters who leaned in one direction were also included, Trump’s lead increased to four points over Harris (49 to 46 percent). 2,708 US citizens were surveyed for this poll between August 12 and 14.
In a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Cygnal More respondents also said they wanted to vote for Donald Trump in the US election, namely 44 percent. One percent fewer wanted to vote for Kamala Harris. 800 people were surveyed on August 14 and 15.
Summary of polls make situation look better for Harris in swing state Pennsylvania
However, there is not only bad news for Harris from Pennsylvania: The Institute FiveThirtyEightwhich weights and summarizes various polls, still sees her ahead of Trump with 46.3 percent in the swing state, compared to 44.9 percent.
The US survey expert Nate Silver also weights and calculates various surveys and regularly publishes his results in Silver BulletinHe also sees Harris ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.5 percentage points. She is also ahead in Michigan (three points ahead), as well as in Wisconsin (3.3 percent). Trump won all three swing states in the 2016 US election.
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Polls before the 2024 US election on Harris and Trump: their significance is doubtful
The validity of such surveys is debatable: the statistical error rate of the surveys is often higher than the lead of the respective candidate. In addition, social desirability always plays a role in election polls: many people are reluctant to tell a stranger who they really want to vote for – especially when it comes to the convicted criminal Trump.
The fact that polls can be misleading was shown not least by the 2016 US election, when Trump surprisingly won the election. Many people are still deeply shocked by the outcome of the US election eight years ago: Back then, the polls up until election day made it look as if Trump could not beat his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton.
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As we know, things turned out differently back then: Europe rubbed its eyes when it woke up in the morning and suddenly it was Trump who would be moving into the White House. Clinton did indeed receive more votes, but that didn’t help because of the special US electoral system with its electors from the states and the principle of “the winner takes it all”.
Electoral system in the 2024 US election: Swing states are crucial for Trump and Harris
Because of the US electoral system, all eyes are on the Polls on the swing statesThe US state of Pennsylvania in particular is considered to be one in which anything is possible: both a victory for Harris and a triumph for Trump. The fifth largest state in the USA by population has 20 electoral votes, which is a considerable weight. Pennsylvania is therefore also considered to be a US state that could decide the 2024 US election overall.
Trump is fighting for victory with all means at his disposal. He did not shy away from using AI fakes to win over SwiftiesA reaction from Taylor Swift apparently followed promptly. The Republican also likes to use the number of visitors at campaign events to point out his own chances of winning. (smu)
