Lieutenant Colonel and head teacher of strategic communication at the Norwegian Defense College, Geir Hågen Karlsen, believes that very many people have died in the fighting in Ukraine.
So far, only Ukraine has released figures on deaths. They claim that only a few hundred Ukrainians have died, while several thousand Russians have fallen.
– It will take time to get real numbers, because in a combat situation it is demanding to register the dead. In combat, one is concerned with survival, he says.
He believes that the figures we have so far received from Ukraine are not complete.
– I can say with a high degree of certainty, that with such large battles, such large areas, and inside cities, so much missile fire and air strikes, and when I know how Russia operates with a lot of heavy artillery, then there are obviously much larger numbers than what has been reported. It’s going with a lot of people now. The loss figures are large, I think they are cruel, and I think we will wake up one day to some figures that are terrible, he says.
I think Putin miscalculated
Hågen Karlsen told Saturday night on TV 2 Nyhetskanalen that he thinks Putin has miscalculated the Ukrainian opposition.
– I think Putin and the Russians have completely miscalculated how easy this should be. The Ukrainians, from the president at the top to ordinary people in the streets, show a will to fight that is respected, he says.
– DESTRUCTIONS: This is what this block of flats in Kyiv looked like after last night’s attack by the Russians. Photo: DANIEL LEAL / AFP / NTB
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The Ukrainian president has previously stated that he intends to stay in Kyiv, and encourages everyone with the opportunity to fight. Friday he also encouraged everyone with combat experience in Europe to come to to contribute.
– It is now obvious that the Russians want to take Kyiv, they are deploying large forces here, and it is always strategically important to take the capital. At the same time, they are also advancing in the south, and gaining control of cities there, says Hågen Karlsen.
– Important resistance
Svein Holtsmark, professor at the Department of Defense Studies (IFS) and the Norwegian Defense College, believes that the resistance the Ukrainians are now making is very important.
– They are apparently making very effective resistance, because otherwise Russia would have taken control of Kyiv by now. I think Putin would have expected to have control by now, Holtsmark says to TV 2.
He believes Putin lives in an echo chamber, where for many years the people around him have only told him the things they thought he wanted to hear.
“We must assume that his orientation to reality is quite weak, and the fact that Ukraine is able to withstand this pressure from a completely superior military power means that the country is gaining self-respect,” he says.
Holtsmark believes this will give the Ukrainians a long-term will to resist, even if Kyiv were to be taken by the Russians.
– Putin has made it clear that he will use absolutely all necessary means to achieve his goals. And his goal is clearly full control of Ukraine. Even if he gains territorial control over Ukraine, the armed resistance will probably not end, he says.
Difficult to take in
Lieutenant Colonel Hågen Karlsen thinks most of us here at home have problems taking in what is happening now.
– I have not taken it in me yet nor I, none of us have done it. I think the horrors of war will dawn on us when we see what this means in terms of casualties, physical destruction and so on, he says.
He is convinced that the situation will get much worse before it gets better.
– We have only seen the beginning so far. It is clear Putin’s ambition is to take control of much, if not all, of Ukraine, he said.
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