Think everyone over 18 gets the first vaccine dose by July – VG

It shows FHIs new vaccine scenario.

In a sober scenario, everyone over the age of 18 will have been offered the first dose of the corona vaccine by mid-July, while the estimate in the optimistic scenario is the beginning of July.

Both scenarios require further use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is still on hold pending new investigations into suspected serious side effects.

When asked what happens if the AstraZeneca vaccination is permanently stopped in Norway, Geir Bukholm, Director of Infection Control at FHI, answers:

– Then there will be a further delay. It will not be very dramatic – approx. one week delay.

– If everything goes well with the vaccines: What kind of summer can we have? What are current reliefs?

– It is important to come back to it and actually see how this turns out. In parallel with making these calculations, we must also see how the infection situation develops. Of course, we hope the summer can be more normal than the summer we had last year, Bukholm answers.

This overview shows when FHI, in its sober scenario, believes that the various groups will have been offered a vaccine:

• Health personnel: Second half of May
• 75–84 years: Last half of March
• 65-74 years, and 18-64 years with high risk: The end of April
• 55-64 years with underlying diseases: End of April
• 45-54 years with underlying diseases: End of April
• 18-44 years with underlying diseases: The transition April / May
• 55-64 years: Mid-May
• 45-54 years: The beginning of June
• 18-44 years: Mid-July

This means, among other things, that those between 18 and 64 years of age with underlying diseases have had a shift in when they should be fully vaccinated, from the beginning of June to the end of June, compared with the previous scenario.

– Looks like the delay is less than it is

How quickly we can offer vaccines to different population groups largely depends on how many doses are delivered in the future.

In the previous sober scenario, FHI estimated that everyone over the age of 18 should have been offered the first dose of vaccine at the end of June – the beginning of July.

– Now these scenarios are made so that you try to optimize the use of the vaccines we have available. This means that it is seen that the final vaccination of groups 18 – 44 is the same date as the first dose, which means that it is the Johnson & Johnson vaccine that will dominate right then. This means that it looks like the delay is less than it is, Bukholm explains.

Since its inception in January, around 560,000 Norwegians have received the first dose of the corona vaccine. Vaccine numbers from FHI’s latest weekly report shows that:

• 11.5 percent of the population has received the first dose of covid vaccine
• Among the risk groups, 22.4 per cent have received the first dose.
• The proportion is 43.1 per cent for employees in the health and care service with work close to the patient
• Among health personnel, the largest proportion of ambulance personnel (70.6 per cent) have received at least one vaccine dose, followed by doctors (64.4 per cent) and specialist nurses (60.1 per cent).
• In the age group 85+, around 90 per cent have received the first dose, and among people between 75 and 84 years old, around half have received it.

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