Alan Sarkis – Nidaa Al Watan
The country is entering a furnace of conflict between the powers in power, as the presidential vacuum deepens and there is no prospect of electing a new president. The presidential vacancy can steal the spotlight from all rights, but the truth is that the country lives in vacuums of another kind, the first of which is the absence of a real government but rather a transitional government, and with every important decision or right a heated debate is created between the parties on the constitutionality of holding a cabinet session, and this is what finally took place, the interim prime minister Najib Mikati and the former president Michel Aoun and the “Movement patriotic freedom”, against the backdrop of the government session, and then the dispute over the financing of the electricity sector.
And if things continue as they are, then the trend is for more crises and meltdowns at all levels, political, economic, financial and perhaps security, and most important of all is vacuums at important sites.
The vacuum of the year 2014 was the longest since the “Taif Agreement”, as it lasted about two and a half years, and preceded the first vacuum after the end of President Emile Lahoud’s mandate, which reached about six months. the current vacuum meter, no one knows where it will be and how much it will reach.
And if the “Free Patriotic Movement” fights with the sword of the “Charter” and considers Mikati’s actions at the time of the presidential vacancy unconstitutional, there is Christian and Maronite fear of the continuation of the vacancy and of the Maronites losing their first office in the state and in the East. The Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, expresses this double fear, for the State and for the Christian role at the same time, but the danger of emptiness will hit the Christian component more if the series of obstructionism continues.
When the presidency of the republic, after the mandate of the first president of the republic, Charles Debbas, passed to the Maronites, he enjoyed powers close to those of the current American president, influential, such as the governor of the Banque du Liban is the current ruler financial position of Lebanon and no one can denounce it. Also regarding the important Maronite position is the leadership of the army, as the army is considered the largest security apparatus in terms of numbers, equipment and role, and its leadership constitutes a corridor to the presidency, while there is also an important Maronite center, he heads the Supreme Council of the Judiciary.
Given the importance of these centers, the presidential candidate and head of the “Marada” movement, Suleiman Franjieh, recently confirmed in his television episode that he cannot promise the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” Gebran Bassil or any other party of grant him these centers if he comes to Baabda, because basically these centers need external – internal understandings, as happens in the presidency, due to its importance and external connections.
And if a miracle does not happen and a president is elected before the summer, then most of the important Maronite centers will empty as the presidency in succession: in July of this year, the mandate of the governor of the Banque du Liban, Riyad Salameh , he concludes, at a time when his deputy from the Shiite community, Wissam Mansouri, will receive this post by proxy, and here a precedent is set in this field, especially in the midst of the “Free Patriotic Movement” which seeks to appoint the sovereign, the refusal of all of any aounist candidate, and the desire of “Hezbollah” to enter the composition of the bank’s governance.
As for the second consecutive vacuum, it will also take place in September of this year, the date on which the mandate of the President of the Supreme Council of the Judiciary, Suhail Abboud, will expire, and at that time the Maronites will lose a second administrative mandate. position. It is worth mentioning that the President of the Supreme Council of the Judiciary is the first president of the Court of Cassation and, in the event of a vacancy, he will be replaced by his replacement, the Public Ministry of Cassation, Ghassan Oweidat (Sunni), and therefore this matter will create more sensitivity.
But the greatest danger is that if the vacuum continues for a long time, as in 2014, then the vacuum will hit the largest security institution, namely the Army Command, because the mandate of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, expires in January of the year 2024, and at that time the Druze Chief of the General Staff will take over the command of the Army by proxy, but the worst thing is that the vacuum has hit the General Staff Command. After the Chief of the General Staff, Amin al-Aram has been retired and the impossibility of appointing a replacement, and therefore the continuing vacuum for this period, means that there is an important decision to dissolve state institutions.
It seems clear that the Christian parties that are obstructing the presidential elections, i.e. the “Free Patriotic Movement” and the “Marada” movement, are partners in striking both the Maronite positions and the fundamental positions of the state, and therefore the election of a new president as the republic will be the gateway to reshaping power.
In the opinion of the constitutionalists, the caretaker government is unable to fill these posts which will become vacant, because this affair involves leaving the restricted ambit of technical affairs, even if there is an essential reason, which is to guarantee the functioning of basic state structures.
On the other hand, such an appointment requires great political consensus, so what is the situation like in such a gloomy climate, so the continuation of the presidential vacuum will extend to all the important offices of the state, so is there anyone who warns?