Until two weeks ago, to monitor the evolution of the pandemic In Córdoba, experts and health authorities closely followed indicators such as R0 and the doubling time of cases.
But the number of people infected daily had a significant jump in the last 15 days, so now other figures are also observed.
These are variables that help to understand the response that is having a key aspect to control the pandemic: epidemiological investigation or contact tracing, one of the strengths that Córdoba has had with respect to other districts and that is highlighted by national authorities and specialists.
Contact tracing involves investigating who each positive case was associated with during the contagion period. In addition, the authorities control that the positive cases and their contacts comply with the isolation for two weeks.
Indicators show that this task is now more arduous, but there are positive results at the moment: cases went from 20 to 100 daily on average, but remain on a plateau around this last figure.
Active cases
Active cases are people who can continue to spread the virus. As expected, the indicator has been growing due to the increase in new daily cases: it went from 219 on July 1 to 823 on July 20 and to 1,582 on July 30. With more cases active, the task of tracking cases and contacts multiplies. “Monitoring is the key, so we increased the number of trackers and people for monitoring,” says Gabriela Barbás, Secretary of Health Prevention of Córdoba.
The Province reported that to date 25,263 people are being followed up, between active cases and close contacts (12.3 for each confirmed infected person). On July 15, that number was 8,268 people (8.2 people on follow-up for each positive).
The official details that there are about 150 people to follow up on close contacts, in addition to the health professionals who control those who are isolated in non-hospital institutions, such as hotels.
“Now we are adding a new group of people to monitor the isolation of contacts from close contacts,” adds Diego Cardozo, Minister of Health of Córdoba. It is a new firewall in the coronavirus spread chain.
Community spread
When a positive case is detected, the first thing that is investigated is how it was infected, its epidemiological link. It can be an imported case or a close contact of a positive one. But, if it cannot be determined, it is classified as community transmission.
An increase in community transmission cases indicates that this first stage of the epidemiological investigation is collapsing and loose ends are being left.
In Córdoba, the percentage is very low when compared to Argentina’s figure of over 50 percent. And there is no increase despite the increase in daily cases.
On July 20, this value was 1.4 percent and fell slightly to 1.16 percent on the same month 30. The percentage of cases that epidemiologists continue to investigate to determine the epidemiological link remained below 1.5 percent.
Salud ensures that this team of trackers has 28 people and that 20 more will be added in the coming days.
“Our situation is different from that of Buenos Aires, where everything is community transmission. Here we have transmission by multiple outbreaks. If we manage to cool these outbreaks and maintain active surveillance, the number of cases can be mitigated, ”says Barbás.
Positivity
It is the indicator to know what proportion of positive cases are obtained from the total number of tests carried out. The WHO recommends that the value be below 10 percent. Higher could indicate that cases are escaping.
Córdoba was always below that percentage, but this increased in the last month. The average for the first five days of July was 0.85 percent. Between July 15 and 20, it went to 2.38 percent, and between July 20 and 30, it reached 4.07 percent.
“Positivity is still low and remains between three and five percent. Many samples continue to come in per day, but we no longer have the high demand from last week and the Inta Marcos Juárez is being added to make analyzes, ”says Barbás.
Suspects with no results
If a bottleneck occurs in testing, the results may be delayed. And time is key to quickly isolating people and thus reducing the number of contacts an infected person associates with without knowing that they are positive.
One way to measure if the testing system is delayed is the number of cases reported as suspected of contagion, but that still do not have the result of their test.
In July, this indicator rose, but then fell. On July 1 there were 840 cases and reached the peak of 1,321 on July 20, to drop to 599 on Thursday the 30th.
89 new cases and another cord
89 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed yesterday, of which 41 are domiciled in the city of Córdoba, one in Villa Allende, six in Villa María, seven in Los Surgentes (Marcos Juárez), three in Monte Buey (Marcos Juárez) , one in Villa Carlos Paz, one in Villa Parque Siquiman, four in Villa Santa Rosa, three in Luque, eight in Oncativo, one in Río Segundo, three in Malagueño, six in Oliva, two in Laboulaye and two imported from Buenos Aires.
There were no deaths yesterday and the number of 49 has been maintained in Córdoba since the start of the pandemic. 5,241 cases were confirmed in the country.
For the confirmation of these seven new infections, the Emergency Operations Center (COE) established a sanitary cord until next Saturday in Los Surgentes, in the Marcos Juárez department and linked to the outbreak in this sector of the Route 9 corridor. phase 1 isolation, only essential activities will be allowed on site.
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