The impact of the health crisis will not allow a recovery in the country until the end of 2022, the expert told Univision Noticias.
–
Shulman said the impact of the $ 2.2 trillion economic package enacted by President Donald Trump will help companies keep their payroll payments, but will do little for the reality of unemployed people.
–
“If they give you money, you’re going to spend it on paying rent or the mortgage on the house, but not for the economy to work,” he said. “That is, there will be no money to eat.”
–
The latest weekly jobs report shows that 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment, bringing the total to 10 million unemployment applications in two weeks.
–
Till von Wachter, professor of economics at UCLA considered that the number of new unemployment claims was “profoundly alarming”, because that number is so much higher than what has been seen in previous recessions,
–
“Unfortunately the numbers are not up for discussion and that is depressing. Furthermore, these numbers do not integrate many unemployed people who are self-employed, have low wages or, for some other reason, do not qualify for unemployment insurance, ”Till von Watcher told Univision News.
–
“Having studied unemployment, recessions, and the political responses to these problems, I am deeply concerned that, if policy makers do not act quickly, we may see a recession like our country has never experienced because it will affect Americans in the coming decades.” von Watcher said. There is still hope that the economy will return to normal after the covid-19 pandemic is contained, but long-term, large-scale unemployment can be difficult to reverse. ”
–
The blow is going to be strong
“The recession in the US is going to be quite strong; if there is no productivity, that will hit hard because companies are not generating income and there is no financial movement in the US and in the world, “he said.
–
The expert recalled that in the United States there are millions of people who work with an ITIN number and pay taxes, but they will not receive a penny from the 2.2 billion economic stimulus enacted by President Trump.
–
Guamán considered that the current recession in the country “easily” can extend two or three quarters more, until October 2020, although it would depend on the covid-19 pandemic being controlled.
–
“There will be thousands of jobs that will not be recovered; people will not have money to pay rent or their mortgages, “he added.” The problem is not only financial, and although it is difficult to measure the consequences in numbers, we will experience something that has not been seen since the 1930 recession: thousands of restaurants go to disappear, people will no longer want to travel out of fear and will forever affect the tourism industry, nor will they want to be in places where there is a crowding of people… fear will be the main problem of the economy ”.
–
The United States “could already be in a recession,” Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell said Thursday in an interview with the NBC Today Show, but noted that progress in controlling the covid-19 will determine when economic activity in the country will be resumed.
–
Not everyone shares the forecast
But not everyone shares these predictions. Christopher Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics, an independent Los Angeles economics research and consulting firm told Univision News that “there is a misinterpretation” of the unemployment figures.
–
“When the bubble burst in the 2008 financial industry, thousands of jobs were lost due to the collapse in the construction industry and other sectors, but now the US was in a strong economy,” he said.
–
He added that people “have only been asked to stay home for a health mandate; then you will recover your job; the restaurant industry will reopen and people will return to work… so far we do not know that jobs have been permanently lost. ”
–
For that reason, he said, “we are not even close to a major recession; if the economy reopens at the end of May we will have a normal transition; It is not that I am optimistic, but realistic ”.
–
