/Polegd.info/ A strange war has started in Myanmar. China’s land access to the Indian Ocean has been threatened. Beijing could intervene in the conflict, leading to new sanctions. Since Myanmar is inhabited by peoples related to the Chinese, there was talk of the emergence of a Chinese “Donbass”. Russia has already shown that it will not remain indifferent to this.
Myanmar – formerly Burma – carries the curse of its colonial past. The British, who took over this vassal country of China in the 19th century, drew its borders without considering the ethnic principle, acting solely on imperialist expediency.
As a result, 68% of Myanmar’s approximately 60 million people are now Burmese. And 32% are ethnic minorities, living compactly mostly in the northern part of the country. The largest groups among them are the Shans (9%), Karens (7%), Arakanese (4%), Chinese (3%), Indians (2%).
Yes, for a long time Burma was part of British India, so on the maps drawn by Indian nationalists it still belongs to India, which has already crossed swords with China in the Himalayas more than once.
What an excellent ground to stir up more “mess” on the southern borders of China, around which the Americans have been creating a “sanitary cordon” for some time. All these minorities are mostly Buddhist, some are Christian, but in our time, inter-ethnic problems are often more dangerous than religious ones, and over 100 different nationalities live in Myanmar.
After the United States failed to entrench in power in Myanmar, which is usually ruled by the military, its controlled democrats led by political idol-turned-politician Aung San Suu Kyi, any negative news from Myanmar immediately hits the front pages of the Western media.
Everything was squeezed out of them – even from the failed attempt of illegal Bengali Muslim settlers to colonize part of the territory of their Buddhist neighbor. The foreigners behaved like masters, and used physical force and harassment, so the Myanmar authorities were quite right to react strongly to this. However, they were blamed for the “Rohingya” mishaps. However, if American puppets were in power in Yangon (formerly Rangoon), this would not have happened.
Is Myanmar at risk of collapse?
In 2021, another military coup took place in Myanmar, the victims of which were proxies of the United States, which incited the disaffected to mass protests. In poor multi-ethnic countries, where there are many young people dissatisfied with their lot, this is never a problem – as long as the instigators have money.
After the authorities suppressed the protests, the country gradually descended into civil war. In recent weeks – just in time for the ATIS summit in San Francisco, attended by Chinese leader Xi Jinping – it has ceased to be sluggish.
Myanmar is at risk of collapse, with the rebel alliance seizing parts of northern Myanmar, including areas bordering China, as the opposition to the Myanmar government scores its biggest victory since 2021. The fiercest fighting is near Myanmar’s border with China in northern Shan state, where three powerful ethnic armed groups have joined forces to wage an offensive that has captured several towns and scores of military posts in recent weeks.
Lightning strike
The rebels, acting with “unprecedented coordination” and heavily armed, something never seen before, have seized nearly 100 (!) of the military posts, threatening the government with losing control of key border crossings that account for nearly 40% of cross-border trade , the source of vital tax revenue for Yangon. This data was provided by American analytical centers that are closely monitoring the situation.
“We haven’t seen a single truck since the fighting started on October 27,” notes AFP. Every day, hundreds of trucks passed through one of the Mushe border checkpoints, delivering fruits and vegetables to China and electronic equipment, medicine and consumer goods to Myanmar. Another transport hub on the border with China’s Yunnan Province – Chinswehau – was closed to trade.
This was achieved by the offensive (“Operation 1027”) in northern Shan State, launched by the Triple Alliance. It includes the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The latter group, according to experts, is the driving force behind this operation.
Some other rebel groups also stepped up. For example, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) captured the town of Kolin, the regional capital of the Sikaing region. The army responded by launching artillery strikes, using air power and engaging in ground clashes with the insurgents. Everything is very serious.
Beijing wants to “jointly” ensure stability
Authorities in Myanmar have acknowledged the success of ethnic minority rebels and that the country is at risk of collapse. China, for its part, calls on the parties to the conflict to ensure security and stability on its border with Myanmar and immediately stop hostilities. They have already led to a fatal accident on Chinese territory. This happened on November 4th.
Two days later, as reported by TASS, the Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Nun Rong, came to Myanmar, urging the local authorities to “work together to maintain the stability of the border of the two countries and effectively guarantee the safety of people and material property of China in the border area.” He promoted these ideas during meetings with members of Myanmar’s leadership, calling China “a good neighbor.”
Noting that Beijing supports the reconciliation process based on peaceful dialogue, Nun Rong expressed his willingness to continue to engage with the Myanmar government to fight cross-border crime and made an inspection tour of the China-Myanmar gas pipeline.
At the same time, it is clear that Beijing does not have much confidence in Yangon’s ability to restore order: China’s foreign ministry urged its citizens on November 9 to “refrain from traveling to northern Myanmar” monitor the situation and, if possible, move to safe areas as soon as possible or return to China.
Eight reasons why Xi will step in
So what are the chances of China intervening in a civil war in Myanmar? They are actually quite high. Sinologist Vavilov highlighted the following main points in his “cart” that confirm the likelihood of this.
First Myanmar is the only country inhabited by ethnic groups of the Sino-Tibetan language family close to the Chinese that is not under the political and administrative control of the Chinese state, with the exception of Singapore and Taiwan.
Second , Myanmar is a natural corridor for the supply of hydrocarbons to China from the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Malacca, controlled by the United States and its allies. Myanmar’s military government is backed by China and Russia. Xi Jinping’s last visit before the pandemic was to Myanmar.
In third place the conflict unfolds on the border of the northern states of Myanmar, the Chinese province of Yunnan, Laos, Thailand – in the so-called Golden Triangle, one of the world’s centers of drug production.
Fourth , rebel groups are actually threatening to cut China off from the corridor through Myanmar to the Indian Ocean. Which may be part of a larger plan to block China on alternative trade routes so far loosely controlled by the US.
Fifth the collapse of Myanmar will exacerbate the proxy confrontation between China and India in that country – in fact, it will lead to a proxy war between China and India and the United States and its allies on a territory equal to that of Afghanistan.
Sixth , disruption of ground supplies of goods from China could lead to the collapse of Myanmar’s military government. China will be forced to intervene in the active phase of hostilities, perhaps even at the level of volunteer units.
SeventhThe West will condemn China’s intervention in Myanmar’s civil war and increase sanctions pressure.
Eighth, Russia can act as a deterrent given its close interaction with India and China: a Russian military contingent and naval base in Myanmar would be able to stop a full-scale Sino-US war in the region that could spread throughout Southeast Asia .
In fact, for China, the establishment of peace in Northern Myanmar is of utmost importance. According to the “One Belt One Road” strategy, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor should pass through this territory. Some elements of its infrastructure are already in place.
A very strange coincidence
And everything would be understandable and clear, if it were not for one mysterious circumstance: the rebel groups that fought against Yangon, at least before that, had very close ties with Beijing. The main military force of their alliance, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), is based in the Kokang region of Shan State, where about 90% of the population is ethnic Chinese.
In the past, there were even reports, the authenticity of which needs to be verified, that this group included recently demobilized military personnel from the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA), that is, Chinese “vacationers”.
What does it mean ? Whether influential circles in the PLA ( version 1 ) and the country’s leadership scare themselves with the prospect of a new conflict with the West and neighboring India? Hardly. The army is the “father” of the President of the People’s Republic of China, he relies on it.
Then maybe this is valid? Myanmar separatists ( version 2 ) were bribed and brought to their side by the foreigners – for example, the huaqiao, not all of whom want a confrontation between China and the West, not realizing that it is inevitable in the new conditions? Alternatively, it could be the Western intelligence agencies. This cannot be ruled out 100%, nor can the involvement of southern Chinese regional elites, who are quite closely aligned with the West, in the current surge in violence.
The goal is the same – to pressure and force Beijing to be wary of the prospect of a new escalation with the US. And finally ( version 3 ) Beijing, not believing in Yangon’s ability to independently control and ensure the security of the land corridor from China to the Indian Ocean, which could become relevant at any moment, thus forced the Myanmar authorities to agree to the deployment of Chinese security forces . The third version seems most likely.
Russians, save…
Yangon, judging by many reasons, really doesn’t want the latter, so Myanmar is now making an unprecedented effort to get protection from… Russia.
At the beginning of November, a detachment of battleships of the Pacific Fleet, consisting of large anti-submarine ships “Admiral Tributs” and “Admiral Panteleev”, was in the port of Tilava for a “business call”. The first ship was visited by the head of state – Chairman of the State Administrative Council, Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Myanmar, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
On November 7-9, the first naval exercises between the two countries took place. They passed into the Andaman Sea. On November 5, they were jointly unveiled in Yangon by the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, with the Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Navy, Admiral Mo Aung.
A day ago, Evmenov held talks with Min Aung Hlaing and Mo Aung. According to a press release of the Russian Ministry of Defense, they were discussed “current issues of bilateral cooperation”. One of the objectives of the visit was to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and Myanmar. It can be assumed that the topic of establishing a Russian naval base in the country was also discussed during the negotiations.
So what?
If everything is approximately as described above, then we cannot rule out a situation that seems absolutely incredible – for example, clashes between Russian and Chinese special forces in the jungles of Myanmar. Do Putin and Xi, Russia and China need it? Definitely not necessary. Myanmar can and should become an exclusive target of cooperation.
Translation: ES
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