/ world today news/ Eastern European countries are looking for ways to gradually give up Russian uranium. High hopes are placed on industry leader Kazakhstan. But they don’t seem to consider the fact that the world will soon be queuing up for nuclear fuel. According to the forecasts of the World Nuclear Association, by 2030 the demand will increase by a third.
It itches and hurts
Oil, gas, coal and aluminum, on which Washington recently imposed 200% tariffs, are under severe US and EU sanctions. The only thing left is uranium.
In March, a group of US senators tried to push through a bill to ban the import of nuclear fuel from Russia. The EU wanted to include it in the tenth package of sanctions. However, the initiatives failed, and for obvious reasons.
Europeans and Americans willingly buy critical goods from Moscow. Russia was one of the main suppliers of uranium to the US and Europe, including the former Soviet republics.
According to the Euratom Supply Agency, in 2021 Russian imports represent 20% of nuclear fuel consumption in the EU, in monetary terms this is 210 million euros. The US imported 550 tonnes worth $645 million – a quarter of all supplies.
The whims of “exthem“
Now Europe, including Eastern, wants to give up Russian uranium as part of a strategy to reduce energy dependence.
According to Bloomberg, the nuclear power plants are looking for new partners for contracts from 2025. They are hoping for Kazakhstan, which produces more than 40% of the world’s uranium.
“Geopolitical uncertainty is changing the flow of nuclear fuel, prompting an increase in stockpiles. We will be able to meet the demands of the market,” Erzhan Mukanov, CEO of Kazakhstan’s state-owned uranium company Kazatomprom, told the agency.
The Americans are particularly concerned about the “energy independence” of Europe. They even promised four billion dollars to Warsaw for the construction of small nuclear reactors.
“Today we took an important step for the future of Poland. Energy will be an important part of Polish-American cooperation for the next hundred years,” said the US ambassador to Warsaw, Mark Brzezinski.
Overconfidence
However, the transatlantic ally will obviously not help with nuclear fuel: in the US, the situation with the nuclear industry is not going well. If ten years ago they produced about two thousand tons of uranium oxide, now only 100.
The problems arose after the Three Mile Island incident in 1979. Since then, enrichment has been dependent on foreign partners.
Therefore, regardless of any sanctions, the US is happy to gobble up Russian fuel. Thus, in October last year alone, $185 million worth of uranium was imported – the maximum since 2016.
As for the EU, a lot depends on technology. Especially when it comes to Eastern Europe.
“There are 18 nuclear power plants in Europe with Russian VVER reactors. It is very difficult, long and very expensive to replace the fuel. In Finland, in Ukraine they tried to switch to American. It did not work. Hungary and Slovakia also gave up the idea. Although Bulgaria and the Czech Republic slightly reduced the import of uranium from Russia, its replacement in Europe as a whole is difficult,” says analyst Vladimir Kovalov.
“This is an area where the technology and infrastructure we’ve been building for decades play a very important role,” adds Pavel Sigal, First Vice President of Opora Rossii.
Finland’s Fortum, which operates two Soviet VVER reactors 90 kilometers from Helsinki, entered into a contract in the 1990s with a British nuclear fuel production company, now owned by Westinghouse. But in the end, the fuel had to be purchased again from Rosatom.
Many willing
Kazakhstan seems a good choice: after all, 25% of world exports. However, the possibilities of Astana are under a big question mark. According to the forecasts of the World Nuclear Association, by 2030 the demand for uranium will increase by a third.
Decarbonisation efforts have forced Britain, France and the US to take a fresh look at nuclear power. Start building new reactors. The most important point is the creation of a stable fuel supply chain. The outlook here is bleak.
“There is simply no surplus uranium on the world market, and in general it is not aluminum or copper, you cannot easily and simply trade it, you have to meet extremely strict supply requirements. In this industry, only long-term contracts are concluded. In addition, there is a restart of nuclear power plants in Japan and the launch of new capacities in China. There will also be a need for uranium, which means that prices will rise seriously,” says Leonid Khazanov, an independent industry expert.
Yet there are nuances.
“First, Rosatom has six mines jointly with Kazatomprom, and the question of the “political purity” of uranium may arise. Second, it is necessary to prepare undeveloped deposits for development, and this requires both time and money.” adds the expert.
An option is the purchase of yellow cake (an intermediate product of the processing of uranium ores) from the Eastern European nuclear power plants. But they will have to deal with enrichment, and that is a headache.
There are markets
Eastern Europe’s divestment of Russian uranium could take ten years. During this time, Rosatom will complete the construction of nuclear power plants in a number of friendly countries, ensuring exports. It will not be difficult for Russia to turn to other markets, as happened with oil.
“In China, 18 reactors will be put into operation in a few years. Nuclear power plants are being built in Turkey, Bangladesh. Already existing capacities in Asia allow for an increase in electricity production, which will require additional fuel. Russia will redirect supplies there,” says Kovalev .
Europe is threatened by an intensification of the energy crisis. Nuclear fuel is not gas or coal, it requires precisely designed equipment that meets the licensing requirements of safety regulators.
The rift with Russia threatens electricity supplies for nearly 100 million people in countries that rely on nuclear power plants as their main source of clean energy.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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