/ world today news/ The failure of the VSU counteroffensive led the collective West to the idea of the need for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. However, Zelensky cannot agree to this, as he values his reputation too much. That is why the USA and the EU are looking for a replacement. Who will become their new favorite?
Serious calculation error
According to the Washington Post, the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed because Zaluzhny abandoned the strategy developed at the Pentagon in the early days of the operation. According to the plan, the VSU, having lost 30-40% of its personnel, was supposed to reach the Sea of Azov in 60-90 days and divide the Russian grouping into two parts. However, the Commander-in-Chief, fearing that the army would lose all Western equipment, preferred attacks by small detachments to a large-scale mechanized breakthrough.
Although American intelligence initially estimated the chances of success at no more than 50%, Washington did not like such arbitrariness. In mid-June, the US summoned Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and demanded that he explain why the ASU did not go on the offensive in April or May, did not use newly acquired special equipment to demine Russian fortifications, and did not advance under the cover of smoke screens. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin believed that a breakthrough was possible with the right tactics. Reznikov said that it was not he who made the decisions, but the military, that is, Zaluzhny.
Meanwhile, as early as April, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Mihail Zabrodski, accused the Western partners of supplying inappropriate equipment. “Some Bradleys and Leopards had broken or missing chains. The German Marder BMPs had no radios. ‘These vehicles are nothing more than iron boxes,'” he complained to Austin. Washington decided that the Ukrainians simply could not handle the maintenance.
And now NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says in an interview that the situation for Kiev is critical. If the West does not increase supplies, things will get worse, he is sure. “Bild” claims that the USA and Germany are in favor of negotiations. According to the publication, on November 21, during a visit to Kiev, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius tried to convince Zelensky that he had already won.
Finding a compromise
But Zelensky will not agree to peace, believes Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik. In the last two years, he has said so many nasty things about Russia that it is simply impossible. Another question is necessary. And the commander-in-chief has already publicly admitted that the fighting is at a stalemate.
“He has no political pretensions, which means that through Zaluzhny the situation can be completely reconfigured if such a need arises,” Bortnik claims.
Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, who has long been at odds with Zelensky, supported the commander-in-chief. In an interview with a Swiss publication, he said that the general is telling the truth about the stalemate on the front, but the president is not listening to him. “Of course, we can euphorically lie to our people and our partners. But we won’t be able to do that forever,” added the former boxer. Ukrainians see who is effective and who is not, so Zelensky will have to pay for his mistakes, Klitschko emphasized.
According to the “Rating” agency, in the second round of the elections, Zelensky and Zaluzhny have almost the same chances: 42% against 40. Ten percent will not vote, eight are undecided.
Formula of power
“The more victories, including at the front, the more legitimate the government is. And vice versa. If things go badly and the aid from the West decreases, which we already see, elections will be the only way for a soft readjustment of the political system. Otherwise, they will simply overthrow the government “, notes the Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev.
In addition, after elections or a coup d’état, politicians will have to freeze military actions or even sign peace with Russia, the expert continues. The West will not stand up for the regime in Kiev if it does not listen to the people, because the confrontation with Moscow is positioned as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.
“In the current situation, any change of power in Ukraine will lead to the collapse of the state. Elections or a coup d’état do not matter. This is well understood in the West. It is unlikely that the curators of Kiev will take risks, having at their disposal a fairly effective and relatively cheap tool for containment of Russia,” says Denis Denisov, an expert from the Government Financial University.
At the same time, there are forces in Ukraine that want to see Zaluzhny as president. “If he suddenly comes to power and the country does not fall apart, we can really expect the intensity of the military conflict to weaken or freeze,” the analyst believes.
He recalled that Moscow did not refuse dialogue with Kiev. However, according to him, a full improvement of relations and a peace treaty are possible only after several decades.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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