/ world today news/ The US is urgently arming the Taiwanese army so that it can cause great damage at low cost in its defense. At the same time, the EU calls on Beijing not to use force against the Taiwanese under any circumstances. This is reminiscent of what happened around Ukraine before the start of World War II. Beijing would like to avoid a special operation of its own, but it is backed into a corner.
The European Union has warned China of the “major consequences” of using force against Taiwan. The EU Commissioner’s statement seems to contain a threat, but in fact it is still diplomacy: thus the EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell insists on the need to resolve all contradictions between Beijing and Taipei through dialogue.
This is a familiar situation for Russia. The West also warned of “major consequences” if troops were sent to Ukraine, but at the same time did everything so that the SVO could still begin: pulling Kiev into NATO, rearming the Armed Forces, supporting the “re-education” of Ukrainian society in the spirit of Russophobia. Much the same is repeated in the case of China and Taiwan, except that the separatist island is not drawn into NATO – instead, it is drawn towards Japan.
The result may be the same: sooner or later, China will launch its own special military operation, even if Borel sincerely does not want it. That the consequences can be great and unpleasant, he is right. The battle will begin where the most important trade routes function, it is like a blow to the circulatory system of the world economy. In addition, the market will lose Taiwanese semiconductors, chips and other fine electronics for a period of time, and there will be no one to replace the supplier. Finally, it is not yet known which is worse for the world economy in the future: the beginning of a conflict or attempts by the West to “reason” China through sanctions, as happened with Russia.
The difference is that the West really does not want a war over Taiwan – both because it fears the consequences and because it is interested in maintaining the status quo when Taiwan, like a giant aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, is controlled by Washington, not Beijing. But as in the case of Russia, China may simply be left with no other choice.
Among Chinese predictions, 2025 most often appears as the year when the PRC could start its own SCO. This is just a guess, a fantasy, but the date is not taken from the ceiling: a lot will be determined by the next year – 2024. At least it will determine the character of the Taiwanese government.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are to be held in Taiwan. Sociologists and political scientists are predicting a victory for the current opposition Kuomintang party, which already defeated the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in the recent local elections. In the Taiwanese system, the Kuomintang supports unification with the PRC in a unified China, while the current government is “independent”, firmly oriented towards the United States.
That the pro-China position is promoted by the Kuomintang may seem strange. After all, it was the Kuomintang that was in a state of civil war with the Chinese Communists, after losing, it was evacuated to Taiwan and thus opened this separatist history.
But above all, this has been happening for a long time. And secondly, the Kuomintang is a nationalist great-power party whose goal is a unified great China. Because of this, they are ready to give up the role of “first violin” that Chiang Kai-shek wanted, and become the second Hong Kong under the “one country, two systems” scheme.
If we continue the analogies with Ukraine, Beijing legitimately hopes that local Yanukovych and Medvedchukov people will come to power in Taiwan, with whom they can negotiate. But the loss of Taiwan is unacceptable to Washington, so it will hinder the victory of the Kuomintang. It is not clear just how brazenly and how far they will go – whether they will decide on an attempt at a “color revolution” and pre-election repressions.
However, when developing its Taiwan policy, the Chinese leadership is guided not by the Russian SVO as an example of defiance to the US, but by this election. The Chinese simply observe the SVO and the West’s reaction to it and draw conclusions – not in favor of the West.
The US failed to either collapse the Russian economy or cut it off from the world. The bloc of allies gathered for the purpose united only the NATO countries and the Asian satellites of the US, which are opponents of China – Japan and South Korea. Everything could have been much more serious – and the coalition was bigger and the sanctions were tougher, but either the West is not strong enough now, or it wants too much, or both at the same time. Neither Asia, nor Africa, nor even Latin America, which until recently was the “backyard” of the USA, followed his anti-Russian initiative.
Even fewer will follow an economic war with China, since for many countries this is no longer just a “shot in the foot” but rather suicide. That is, China risks much less than Russia. But ideally for himself, he would prefer to take no chances at all by settling the conflict diplomatically.
However, Beijing will certainly have the opportunity to make sure that it simply will not be allowed to reach an agreement with the Taiwanese leadership “the good way”. Thus the 2025 date arises, as further delay is no longer in China’s interest.
First, Taiwan will continue to be actively armed, with the result that the cost of a special military operation will increase for China over time. Second, Beijing would like to get the hen along with the golden eggs, and the Americans are currently ripping them out from under the hen, dragging the same semiconductor production onto their territory.
Finally, 2025 is the equator of President Xi Jinping’s third term. There should have been a maximum of two, but the PRC legislation formulated under the “great leader” Deng Xiaoping was rewritten for Comrade Xi, officially equal to Comrade Deng, and with the first of the greats, the founder of the PRC, Mao Zedong.
Despite the tangible increase in the well-being of the population, evil tongues say that this greatness was attributed by Xi as some down payment and that it will have to be repaid. If strengthened through China’s unification, it would be an ideal option and a guarantee for a fourth term.
Therefore, as Borrell worries about the economic security of Europe and the peaceful skies of East Asia, he should not warn China of the consequences, but persuade the US not to provoke Beijing, not to interfere in Taiwan’s domestic politics, not to supply weapons there, not to turn Xi in the eyes of the people and the party into a leader who missed a historic opportunity. There is a chance for China’s unification, but also a chance for peace.
French President Emmanuel Macron, after a visit to China, has already said that Europe does not need to come into conflict with Beijing and enter into the Taiwan confrontation. For this in the PRC, Macron is valued more than other Western leaders, relying on France’s political self-sufficiency. However, Macron’s bold statements are almost always lip service as Paris takes a chronically subservient position vis-à-vis Washington. The decision still remains not for him and not for Borel, but for America.
America will now urgently supply Taiwan with Stinger air defense systems and Javelin anti-tank missile systems. Free of charge.
“If you suddenly receive such free aid, you will have to pay an unthinkable price,” said former Taiwanese defense minister Feng Shiquan. It’s clear what he means. If for China, the West and the rest of the world the cost of an armed conflict between the US and China would simply be great, as Borrell said, then for Taiwan it is truly unthinkable.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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