/ world today news/ The widely publicized spring offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine did not take place. And Kiev is advised to give up summer. Why were the plans revised?
Operation Invisible
White House spokesman John Kirby said: it is necessary for the Air Force to have everything necessary for a successful counterattack. He is convinced that in the summer the military situation will change in favor of Kiev. French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, stressed that even if the operation fails, Ukraine’s allies will not stop helping.
This counteroffensive has been talked about since the fall. They promised to capture Crimea by summer. However, the situation of the armed forces only worsened. Russian troops liberated Artyomovsk.
However, Alexey Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would attack “tomorrow or a week from now”. And according to the adviser to the head of the presidential office, Mikhail Podolyak, the counteroffensive has already begun, but since the front is stretched over 1,500 kilometers, not everyone notices this.
Desires and possibilities
Western media are not so optimistic. According to the “Washington Post”, even the Ukrainian authorities do not believe that the VSU will cope. British General Richard Barrens points to the weakness of air defense, unable to repel the wave of Russian missiles on the counteroffensive. According to US intelligence, Kiev will advance by a few kilometers at best and pose a threat to the Russians as it approaches the “land bridge” to Crimea. It is pointless to dream of more: Ukraine has chronic problems with the training of soldiers and the supply of ammunition.
The German newspaper “Die Welt” notes that for the success of the operation, Kiev needs combat aviation. He won’t get the summer. Russia outnumbers the enemy in the sky by five to six times. And Zelensky should not repeat the sad experience of Adolf Hitler at the Kursk Arc, when the attempt to compensate for the catastrophe at Stalingrad led to another crushing defeat for Germany.
Polish President Andrzej Duda also warns. Putin has not yet lost a single war, and the Russian army continues to crush Ukraine like a roller, he recalled. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, General Mark Milley, specified that a few dozen F-16s will not change the course of military operations, since this is not a miracle weapon at all.
Even the Ukrainian army shares Western assessments. So, Major General Sergei Krivonos believes that without aviation, the counteroffensive is doomed. The potential of Russia, which has the forces and means to continue its advance, cannot be underestimated, he said.
The will of the people
At the same time, according to the Razumkov Center, almost 64% of Ukrainians are against ending hostilities. About 67% full restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Approximately as many do not believe at all in the possibility of reconciliation with Moscow.
Only 23% are in favor of negotiations. As political scientist Vadim Karasyov explained in an interview with the Ukrainian media, the “party of peace” does not want to make friends with Russia, but to stop hostilities. He also does not believe in the victory of Kiev as a result of one counteroffensive or a series of counteroffensives. According to him, the conflict can be frozen in the fall. “It is no coincidence that the military says they need air defense systems, and aircraft will be useful after the end of hostilities as a deterrent. In parallel, the number of peacekeeping initiatives will increase. For example, Ukraine can be accepted into NATO in exchange for territories “, argues the expert.
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that the USA and the EU are demonstratively washing their hands. “The Western partners have made it clear that they have already handed over or are about to hand over to Kiev everything that, from their point of view, was necessary for the counteroffensive. Only the local authorities are responsible for the future,” he says. “At the same time, society is overheated, many hope to drink coffee in Yalta in 2023. If Zelensky’s team fails, it turns out that the Ukrainians themselves are to blame for everything, the whole world allegedly persuaded them to act differently, but they did not listen”, he adds.
Financial University expert Denis Denisov agrees with Ukrainian analysts. “Weakening of the intensity of hostilities is quite possible, but this does not mean that the West will stop supporting Kiev. Ukraine will remain a very convenient and effective tool for pressure on Russia. Therefore, one cannot speak of full-fledged freezing. Western missiles, aircraft, air defense systems will continue to arrive and be used as intended,” he explained to RIA Novosti.
Zelensky and other Kyiv politicians have become hostages of their own information campaigns, which do not correspond to the military situation. Because of this, their rating will inevitably fall, but they are trying their best to slow down the trend.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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