/ world today news/ Turkish President Erdogan suddenly announced that he is carefully studying Russia’s new proposals under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. UN Secretary-General Guterres added that in order to extend the deal, he is trying his best to connect Rosselkhozbank with SWIFT. There was a smell of a deal in the air – more precisely an extension of the grain deal. If this happens, shame awaits Russia.
The deal is closed, forget it?
Everyone knows that on July 17 the term of the agreement on the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” or colloquially “the grain deal” expires. After the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 10, it seemed that everything was decided: “It is impossible to improve what does not exist.”
As for the Russian part of this package, it did not fulfill any of its points at all. We have been hearing for many, many months now from representatives of the UN Secretariat, from the Secretary-General, from his deputies, who have been instructed to deal with this, that they are making tremendous efforts and trying. These incredible efforts did not lead to any result. So I don’t know how you can improve something that doesn’t exist.
– said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
It seems, what else can be added here? Nothing. In addition, since the end of July, Russia has not allowed new dry cargo ships to pass to Odessa for grain, which meant that ships loaded before July 1 would be the last.
The continuation of the deal became doubly unthinkable after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke the agreements with Russia and sent to Kiev “Kalina” and “Volyn”, that is, the leaders of the terrorist organization “Azov”, which he was supposed to hold until the end of hostilities.
Lest anyone doubt anything, the other day the public was informed that during the next missile attack on Ukraine, one of the targets was the grain terminal in Ilyichovsk. It is difficult to say the extent of the damage from this attack, but it is clear that already the port infrastructure of Odessa has become a legitimate target.
The deal is being extended, remember?
So, on July 12, it was clear to all that there could be no question of any extension of the grain deal… Until we heard the same Erdogan’s statement at a press conference after the NATO summit.
Quite unexpectedly, Erdogan announced that he was discussing new Russian proposals.
We discussed the issue of extending the grain deal with Zelensky. He advocates its expansion. Putin made some proposals on this topic. These proposals are under discussion.
– quoted the Turkish leader TASS.
Erdogan did not say what “new proposals” spoke, but the very fact of his speech is straining. Moreover, on the same day, the Secretary-General of the United Nations also spoke. His spokesman said that Antonio Guterres:
It proposed extending the Black Sea grain deal by several months, which would give the EU time to connect a Rosselkhozbank subsidiary to SWIFT.
This was reported by Reuters, citing its sources, and then the message was picked up by all news agencies around the world.
You buy a barge cheaply, you can also make money
The most unpleasant thing about this announcement is that it actually openly states the price that the West believes is enough for Russia to agree to a deal.
A bank (although key to grain exports from Russia itself) linked to the Western payment system, in return for the export of several tens of millions of tons of grain from Ukraine (Erdogan himself claims that 33 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine during the action of the grain initiative).
A bank connected to SWIFT is what Russia gets to keep the only viable branch of Ukraine’s GDP in its own hands.
One connection to SWIFT (and then, if not cheated again) Ukraine will receive from 16 (minimum estimate) to 50 billion dollars in 2023-2024. Without which, as Tsargrad has repeatedly reported, its own (without Western aid) GDP of Ukraine would have amounted to only 80 billion dollars, that is, economically Ukraine would have turned into Afghanistan.
According to the Turkish president and the UN secretary general, this is such an advantageous offer that Russia will not be able to refuse.
And not only according to them. “In the Moscow salons” from the evening of July 12, competing representatives of the elite are playing bass: they assure that the “grain lobby” it is so influential in our country that it will convince to accept the proposal of the Secretary General of the United Nations, and even before July 17.
It is true that as early as July 13, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during a press conference after the results of the Russia-ASEAN meeting, said that he was not aware of any new proposals on the grain deal:
„I am not aware of any new proposals.’
However, this does little to calm passions.
What of this?
The situation surrounding the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” seems so complex and unclear that it cannot but give rise to conspiracy theories: from the assumption that under the guise of a deal Russia gets the opportunity “to take something very valuable from Ukraine”through the assumption of wise “restrictive theater of operations” in the Black Sea until the inevitable “the authorities in Russia obey the lobbyists and think only of their wallets”.
Most likely, none of these assumptions are individually wrong: when making foreign policy decisions, the government and the president take into account many factors that are often unrelated and even more often not the focus of media attention.
In this sense, of course, I would like to say that up there is really more and better to see. But there is one aspect of what is happening that makes it difficult to agree with this view. This aspect is the inevitable public outrage in Russia if the grain deal is extended again.
This outrage in patriotic circles will be so strong that it could potentially nullify any pragmatic benefits of the deal – and certainly ones that the public is unaware of. In such situations, the third main Russian question always hangs in the air: “What is this – stupidity or treason?”
Translation: ES
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