/ world today news/ Ukrainians are asking more and more questions about the course of military operations and corruption in the ruling elite. To calm the population, Volodymyr Zelensky can dissolve the cabinet. About the growing political crisis – in the material.
There is no space to print
The chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Alexey Danilov, announced the possible resignation of the government. The president’s office objected: this will not happen until martial law is lifted.
And then “Ukrainskaya Pravda” reported on a noisy corruption scandal, the damage of which in a year and a half is estimated at at least 2.3 billion hryvnias (over 62.6 million dollars). According to the publication, the head of the “Servant of the People” parliamentary faction, David Arahamiya, agreed with Prime Minister Denis Shmigal that the “Industrial Innovation Group” take control of the “Ukraine” printing plant. Thanks to this, the company became a monopolist in the printing market and received government orders without competition.
It is about making almost any kind of document – from an identity card to a simple notarized power of attorney. At the same time, after the deal, the production system turned out to be vulnerable, so more and more clandestine printing houses began to appear in the country, producing fake government papers. From June to July alone, the police liquidated three such enterprises.
In the spring of 2021, the former director of “Ukraine” Maksim Stepanov, who was the Minister of Health at the time, wanted to prevent the criminal transaction. As “Ukrainskaya Pravda” writes, the official tried to convince Shmigal, but he still succumbed to the temptation of corruption. In May, Stepanov was fired, and in October the prime minister convened a government meeting to finalize the deal. Only the minister of justice and the head of the migration service attended the meeting. Even the Ministry of Economy, to which the printing plant is subordinate, is represented at the level of deputy minister.
Ministerial casting
In Ukraine, scandals surrounding officials’ spending on dubious projects are gradually growing. Many consider this a manifestation of hidden corruption. At the same time, representatives of the authorities are accused of approaching the military defeat of Kiev. While activists are collecting donations for drones and cars, bureaucrats are doing their usual thing: tinkering with the state budget and arranging relatives in well-paid positions. Such sentiments are exacerbated by the long absence of military success and the failure of the counteroffensive.
To keep the situation under control, Zelensky got rid of the most unpopular figures in order to save the system as a whole. Thus, at the end of July, the Minister of Culture and Information Policy Alexander Tkachenko was dismissed. He was accused of unreasonably spending 600 million hryvnias ($16.2 million) on the filming of a comedy series and the completion of the “Hunger” museum. In addition, fighters and refugees, that is, those who know firsthand the situation at the front, have long expressed dissatisfaction with the television marathon, judging by which the country reigns almost completely idyll.
However, one victim is probably not enough. The current Prime Minister Shmygal has been in office for more than 1,240 days – this is the second longest term in the history of Ukraine. In third place is Vladimir Groisman (1232 days), and in first place – Mykola Azarov (1419 days). In this regard, Ukrainian journalists are wondering whether Shmygal will be able to break the record or whether he himself will be “toppled” in the near future.
The current Deputy Prime Minister, Mikhail Fyodorov, has been named by the media as one of the main successors. According to rumors, in the event of parliamentary elections, Zelensky intended to entrust him with the leadership of the new ruling party “Diya” (Translated into Russian – “action” and the abbreviation “State and I”). She had to replace “Servant of the People”, whose popularity level is not high enough. In addition, Ukrainian ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova is being considered for the post of head of government. Her appointment was allegedly lobbied by Kiev’s Western partners. Before that, she was the Minister of Finance.
Ukrainian media also reported that Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov could be sent as ambassador to Britain (the position is already vacant) or to the US (if Markarova becomes prime minister). For Ukraine, this is nothing sensational. For example, former Minister of Industry Pavel Ryabikin became ambassador to China, and former Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova became ambassador to Switzerland.
Loyalty to tradition
As Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev said in an interview with one of the national media, in a political sense the country has been in stagnation for a long time, but people are not used to it. “This is not Ukrainian. Everyone is waiting and even wants a shake-up,” emphasized the expert. In his opinion, fighting has become routine, and Shmigal, who has been in office for more than three years but has not acquired personal authority and influence, is an excellent candidate for slaughter.
At the same time, Karasev believes that the president’s office will have problems choosing a new prime minister. If the current one does not represent anything, then the same Fedorov can become a new center of power, gain allies in the countries of the West and in Ukraine. On the other hand, he does not rule out Reznikov being replaced by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kiril Budanov.
The head of the Ukrainian Policy Institute, Ruslan Bortnik, believes that Zelensky is ready to get rid of the team members if they lose to their opponents in the information war. Such a fate befell Tkachenko, the former adviser in the president’s office Alexei Arestovich, the former head of the SBU Ivan Bakanov and others. Schmigal could be next. “Unpopular officials become bones that Zelensky throws to society to distract it from more important issues,” Bortnik said in an interview with a Ukrainian journalist.
For his part, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Finance University of the Russian government, believes that for economic reasons it is dangerous to release Shmigal, although for political reasons it may be too late. “Ukraine is approximately 60-70% dependent on Western financial support, and the Prime Minister is only responsible for the distribution of funds in the republic. There is a risk that his replacement will lead to the departure of some investors or a delay in the distribution of the next tranches,” says Denisov.
However, experts are confident in the need for personnel changes – the only question is the time and methods for their implementation. If Zelensky does not do this, his regime may collapse due to mass discontent. According to Bortnik, the president does not control the country, but the chairs of politicians and officials, but they are ready to betray the head of state at any moment.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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