/ world today news/ The celebration of the Great Victory Day always most sharply creates the demand in society for the image of a new “Victoria”. Abstract statements without clear parameters, accompanied by rationalized phrases or meaningless slogans, cease to work, and then the question arises with increasing force: what, without loud phrases, should be the victory in the special military operation? What we want
If we try to formulate potential expectations, there are several such scenarios:
Complete defeat of Ukraine
The same unconditional surrender as per the 1945 model.
True, there are several branches here. First, Ukraine can become an integral part of Russia. A number of private but no less important questions arise here about the technology to accomplish this goal, but you have to start with it.
Second, Ukraine could become a separate territory with a kind of quasi-state status and separate governance, which some powers probably still dream of.
The scenario of total victory is perhaps the most expected in society, but not the fact that it is the most expected among the Russian elite.
There are several reasons for this: pragmatic calculations related to the financial impossibility of fully fulfilling social obligations to the population of Ukraine, the prohibitive costs of rebuilding Ukraine, the lack of administrative resources to manage these huge territories, the scarcity of which we are already seeing, external risks.
Second scenario
That part of Ukraine, which is commonly called Novorussia, with a territory that includes, inter alia, Mykolaiv, Odesa Oblasts and, possibly, Transnistria.
In this case, Ukraine ceases to have access to the seas and, according to the laws of geopolitics, loses the strategic importance it currently has.
This is probably a more pragmatic and sensible scenario, if you do not take into account the fact that the remaining territory of Ukraine will inevitably remain in a state of severe confrontation with Russia and, with the support of the West, will accumulate resources for further development. military action exhausting Russia.
Third option
The “neither here nor there” state so beloved by many representatives of the Russian elite, that is, the “38th parallel” algorithm, when the status quo is fixed along the current line of contact.
The situation of freezing the conflict in the Donbas model after the 15th year and the two Minsk agreements, while maintaining the smoldering level of violent conflict that maintains the tone of intra-social mobilization and consensus, relieves the tension of potential protests.
The elite here are looking for ways to somehow exist in truce with the West and expect that there will be new potential conflicts – first of all with China, the degree of confrontation, because of which it will be lowered.
There are a number of signs that this particular model is now seen by some of the Russian elite as preferred and expedient – simply because it is in this model, in correcting the situation, putting off until tomorrow what they cannot handle today, that they are accustomed to solving almost any problem that can be overcome in a short swing:
“Let’s wait, let’s see, wait for the window of opportunity, who needs it – let him fight”.
Moreover, this very option is convenient for clan systems, since the general pressure of society to ensure a crushing victory already requires a revision of approaches to the entire national economy. The well-known projectile and other types of hunger are a demonstration of the maximum capacity of current capabilities.
Undoubtedly, there is a huge potential for growth in Russia – the only question is that for this growth it is necessary to drastically change the ownership structure not only of the industry, but also of the entire related financial system, transaction processes, approaches to public and corporate governance , the regulatory framework and, of course, the staff.
Which, of course, calls into question the inviolability of the positions of modern large Russian owners, interested Russian officials of the highest rank and generally leads to a transformation of the existing financial, industrial and other models of public life.
It is unlikely that the options of separate “people’s republics” from the new parts of Ukraine, which were possible at the beginning of the SVO, from the new parts of Ukraine, with an alternative to the Kyiv authorities in the face of the “Southern Ukraine” project, are now acceptable. Then, under the short-term regime of the SVO, this gave undoubted advantages, but now it no longer carries any real content.
There are other, much less positive scenarios for Russia, but they all boil down to an actual defeat in the special military operation, either through some compromises to leave the territories liberated after February 24, 2022, or leaving behind Russia only Crimea, or Crimea and Donbass.
One such scenario can be understood by looking at the process of the failed Istanbul Treaty. I would not like to see such options in practice, because a huge price has already been paid, and the negative consequences for the future of the country are even more large-scale.
Perhaps these scenarios also have their own lobbyists, who are currently presenting them as actions within the current possibilities of the “politics is the art of the possible” model, without fixing it as a defeat, being sure that the control of the media will allow the tension to be eased of society and awareness of objective reality.
The ball in this most important issue for everyone is now in the court of President Vladimir Putin.
It is obvious that for a long time the denazification and demilitarization version was perfectly acceptable as an explanation for the SVO. But the fact is that in the structure of goal-setting, such attitudes are a tool for achieving something larger and more complete, some final model, this same final image. And now it is sorely missed.
Apparently, the officials responsible for the SVO, who offered the president options for public rhetoric, believed that in the conditions of uncertainty, such underestimation was convenient for various scenarios of the development of the situation. But the time for different options has passed.
Society eagerly and excitedly awaits understandable formulations of this image of Victory, believes, hopes and expects that it is about Victory.
Because when the Germans stood near Moscow in 1941, it was already clear that the only way for the Soviet state to survive was the collapse of fascist Germany, without any compromises.
It looks like the situation should look the same now. Undoubtedly, society is ready to be understanding of possible difficulties, as it has been doing recently, but at the same time it relies on the formulation of a global goal to which we are striving.
Moreover, the population of Ukraine is also waiting for such an answer, because a certain underestimation also often leads to a misunderstanding of Russia’s mission and subsequent resistance. It seems that a normal explanation in this regard will facilitate the successful resolution of the special military operation.
PS: “To a man who does not know to which port he is headed, no wind will be favorable” (Lucius Aeneas Seneca).
Translation: SM
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