“They are coming. They passed us or we ran away. ”Ukrainians are watching the success of Russia

A former Ukrainian officer and colleague of the OSNIT organization, which draws information from open sources, a military analyst with the name Tatarigami_UA on social networks, explained why the city of Pokrovsk is so important for Ukraine and why the Russians are so eager get it.

The analyst confirmed at the outset that Avdijivka has been a key point on the front for a long time. It was a fortified city, through which supplies flowed, and was a point of return in any future attempt to recover the Donetsk region. But in the spring of 2024, Avdijivka fell into the hands of Russia. The attackers attacked the Ukrainians with a large number of blow bombs and eventually retreated.

“Pokrovsk… lies west of Avdijivka at a major railway junction. It has become a major distribution center supporting Ukrainian forces on the extensive front line from Vuhledar to northern Donetsk and beyond,” the analyst said. And he attached another map where he marked the main railways in red. It is said that main road routes, marked in black on the next map, pass through Pokrovsk, hence the logistical importance of the town half as good, according to the former Ukrainian official. Just as important as the city of Kramatorsk, which is still held by the Ukrainians.

“The road connecting Pokrovsk with Kostiantynivka has long been a Russian goal. Cutting it off would worsen the supply of troops in the Bachmut-Horlivka sector. The possible loss of Pokrovsko is an operational risk for logistics in the region, from Vuhledar to Horlivka,” the analyst said.

According to him, the Russians are advancing so fast in this region that it allowed them to pass several defense lines that the Ukrainians tried to build after the fall of Avdijivka. The OSINT map shows the defense lines, but also how the Russians bypassed them. Satellite images are also said to show that the Ukrainians withdrew from some positions without the defenses being completely destroyed, suggesting that the defenders of the country under attack had to withdraw back, for example, because they ran out of ammunition or didn’t have enough for protection. the position of soldiers.

“While concerns about the lack of fortifications behind Avdijivka are valid, the main problem is the lack of manpower and units to defend them. No matter how well the defense is built, if there is a team to only 10-20% of potential, it is likely to be lost,” said the analyst.

It appears that the Ukrainians withdrew some units from the Pokrovsk command to protect the Kharkiv region, which was under pressure before the Russian attack on Pokrovsk, and these units then disappeared during the advance of Russia behind Avdijivka.

“Ukraine has options to stabilize the line, including deploying new brigades, redeploying forces from Kursk and Kharkiv, or redeploying battalions from more stable fronts. However, time is against the defenders and a serious operational disaster is imminent,” said the former Ukrainian official.

As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a major supply hub in Ukraine’s Donbas region, there are concerns about potential losses. There is some uncertainty as to why Pokrovsk is more important than other towns that have been lost recently. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects: pic.twitter.com/ccw6EHneSo

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 27, 2024

The government in Kiev is also said to be worried that if Putin’s attackers were to capture Pokrovsk and gradually the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, their leader in the Kremlin might not tell them to stop. Instead, he would order them to try to steal another piece of territory from Ukraine. The largest piece possible.

According to Washington Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the situation of the Ukrainians is also made worse because the American side is urging the British not to allow the Ukrainians to use the Storm Shadow missiles with a longer range against any targets in Russia.

“The Telegraph reported in a section of the original web article that has since been deleted that the UK had not formally asked the US to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadows to strike military targets in Russia, and that a White House source said the US was concerned how the use of missiles – even without US approval – could escalate the situation and drag the US into war in Ukraine. The Telegraph also noted that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is using a ‘consultative approach’ to deal with the US and does not want to touch the issue. A British government source has said that Russia is aware that Ukraine is seeking permission to strike military targets in Russia, so Russia has moved its ‘most critical assets’ out of range long-range missile systems. ISW continues to assess that, although Russian forces have moved aircraft out of range of Western-supplied Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles, a large number of Russian military sites remain near -within the Western military zone, with the restrictions allowing the Russian forces to use a deep rear. regional sanctuary within Russia to support military operations against Ukraine,” the institute said.

According to ISW, the situation in the Kursk region in Russia has calmed down and the Ukrainians are trying to consolidate the land they have received.

And the Russians are still attacking Kiev. The mayor of the city, Vitaly Klitschko, announced that debris from downed Russian drones damaged several buildings in the capital of Ukraine.

“Several explosions were heard in Kyiv and Kyiv region during the alert. Air defense was active in most of the central and northern territories of Ukraine. Debris from the drone reportedly landed in at least three areas of the capital and caused a fire in one of the affected areas. First responders were dispatched to the scene,” he said independent Kyiv server.