/ world today news/ The fanfare for the liberation of Artyomovsk stopped. The most radical sofa patriots celebrated the victory in SVO. The less radical – victory in the battle, which was compared to Stalingrad
The fighters are busy with the usual work of clearing the city and demining the territory. The “undertakers” remove the corpses of the fighters from the ruins… The work usual in such cases is going on to restore elementary order in the liberated territories.
The enemy, also by habit, lies that Bakhmut is already practically surrounded and, again, according to the already traditional scheme of Khokhol propaganda, that the Russians will supposedly soon escape from this city, as they once did from Kherson.
Even that predictable “offensive” of the Ukrainians in the border areas of Russia has already taken place. Again, the Ukrainians did not come out with any enthusiasm. They used a method that had already been tested earlier. Even the performers are the same.
Suicides were presented as traitors to the Motherland, among our former citizens who simply have nowhere to go. From the very beginning of this adventure, it was clear that nothing from this DRG (sabotage-reconnaissance group) would be released [да си отиде, ред.].
Which basically happened. At the time of writing, there are unofficial reports of the destruction of 39 and the capture of 4 saboteurs.
Only one event announced by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the counteroffensive of the armed forces of Ukraine, did not take place. I also held this view.
The liberation of Artyomovsk frees up significant forces of the armed forces of Ukraine. Yes, and those 6 brigades that were intended for the offensive still exist.
I will express one specific thought about the reason for the inactivity of the armed forces of Ukraine. Alas, the very problem of the role of the individual in history. The Khokhli really do not have the decisiveness and quick reactions of General Zaluzhny. I am increasingly leaning towards the version that Zaluzhny is really seriously wounded. At least I’d like to believe it.
Bakhmut is gone, Artyomovsk is back, what’s next?
Really, what’s next. Who will attack and where? And will there be at all?
These questions are of interest to many today. And yet the most radical are already “advancing towards Kharkiv”. The less radical – “liberate the territory of the DPR and LPR”. And the pessimists count the remnants of Russian units that will be able to attack at all. Absolutely the same situation on the other side.
But I’ll start with something else. On why the battle for Bakhmut became so epic. Why are we dealing with this city for so long?
Yes, Bakhmut is the key to a fairly powerful fortified area that includes Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, and Avdeevka. It had to be taken. But why so long?
Yesterday I saw a commemorative medal of PMC Wagner with the interesting name “The Bakhmut Meat Grinder”. I think that this modestly decorated, in the style of awards for the capture of cities in the Great Patriotic War, medal will be another award that we will be proud of. The reverse side of this medal contains the answers to all the questions. Direct text.
It was impossible to take Bakhmut by any other means than by storm. Therefore, it was decided by the PMC leadership and General Surovikin to use assault units.
To start the same “meat grinder”. Therefore, the period for which the operation was carried out should be considered not in days and months, but … in the losses of the enemy.
And these losses are calculated in quite serious numbers. The total losses of the armed forces of Ukraine, according to various sources, range from 130 to 150 thousand people. Of them irrevocably from 45 to 57 thousand people. Equipment and armament losses are also impressive. Just over 100 tanks were destroyed…
It is clear that the musicians also suffered losses in the battles for the city. Musicians are physically and psychologically exhausted. Both we and the enemy are well aware of it.
The units must be withdrawn to the second echelon for rest and replenishment of personnel, equipment and armament. Hence Prigogine’s statement.
But it is quite problematic to withdraw them all at once and replace them with units of the Russian army. We have repeatedly seen how the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through the defenses of newly arrived units and units on the flanks of the PMC. And how effective the help of these units is for Wagner’s stormtroopers.
Hence the initial task for Artyomovsk. The gradual replacement of units and the creation of effective defensive lines in the event of a counterattack by Khokhli.
By the way, it is precisely the fact that the “steel boys of the orchestra” will soon leave that Ukrainian propaganda is hoping for today. First the musicians will leave, and then the military will flee under the blows of the armed forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the idea of developing an offensive from this direction “on the shoulders of the enemy” is utopian from the very beginning. At the same time, local offensives in certain areas are quite possible and I think they will be carried out. For example, why not take Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka from the Ukrainians? Then we go directly to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
It seems to me that active actions on a serious scale from our side should not be expected in the near future. It’s hard to liberate a city, but even harder to hold it. Attacks on unprepared positions by new brigades are likely. Even the five I mentioned above.
There are also new territorial defense brigades available to the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And that’s at least five brigades. You can use them not only under Bakhmut. Probably the area of Kremennaya and Popasnaya is more promising in this regard.
If Kiev has not given up on the idea of terrorizing the border regions of Russia, and such data is still not available, then this is an ideal place to intensify military actions. The border is close, if they want they can step there, if they want to send the DRG. Oh, and the lovely green allows them to camouflage equipment and weapons well.
Then will there be an offensive or not?
This question remains unanswered. The “offensive machine” is launched from Kyiv. I have written about this many times. But the competent work of the artillery and VKS significantly reduced the offensive potential and logistical capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Today it is foolish to count on a quick replenishment of the compounds involved in the offensive.
A paradox. It is impossible to stop the preparation of the offensive and it is impossible to attack. At the same time, it is impossible not to attack.
The West wants victories, and if there are none, aid will be minimized. This is such a difficult task for Ukraine.
A global strategic offensive that would radically change the character of the war in favor of Ukraine should not be expected. There will be operations in small areas of LBS (Line of Combat Contact) of a tactical nature.
The situation can be changed by the rapid delivery of aircraft to the armed forces of Ukraine. As long as Russian aviation dominates the air, any offensive will turn into a meat grinder.
Alas, such a decision based on current statements and events will soon be made. I am not in the business of predicting how much NATO aircraft will reduce the effectiveness of our aviation, and this will certainly happen in the initial period of use, but they will not have a significant impact on the overall picture. There are also rockets…
In general, today it is not worth talking about the offensive of one side or another. The forces and means at the disposal of both sides are simply not sufficient for a more or less prolonged offensive. What is sufficient for defense is by no means sufficient for attack.
If the task is set to force Ukraine to start peace talks as soon as possible, we will have to use new compounds. And this means that at the moment, taking into account many components, those who will advance to Left Bank Ukraine are still on the territory of Russia. In Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions …
Translation: SM
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