Who will get into the playoffs? Did the Broncos make a mistake? And what do we do with the Packers after six games? Also, is Kirk Cousins a top 10 quarterback?
SPOXEditor Adrian Franke will answer your questions about the match day as usual. Also this week there are some additional answers in the video mailbag.
It starts with the first look at the playoff picture: Which teams will make it into the postseason this year? Who can hope realistically?
NFL Mailbag: Which teams make it into the playoffs?
Joshua, Let Scholz: Which teams do you consider safe playoff participants after a little more than a third of the regular season?
A very good time in the season to dare to make an initial, very cautious forecast. I divided the teams into categories in order to have some sort of delimitation with regard to the teams’ assessments of the rest of the season.
And just to make it clear here: In contrast to a power ranking, this is of course primarily a forecast for the rest of the season, and only to a limited extent a representation of the current situation. And one more note: The teams are sorted according to their current balance sheet, not according to probability.
Forecast: Which teams will definitely make it to the playoffs?
Arizona Cardinals (6-0): That was an impressive performance in Cleveland, given all the circumstances that made life difficult for Arizona this week. The Cardinals have a top 5 offense, Murray plays like an MVP candidate – and the defense in itself has been a positive surprise so far. It is quite possible that the Rams will still overtake Arizona, but as a wildcard team I can at least see the Cardinals in it
Buffalo Bills (4-2): For me, the Bills are the most complete team at the moment, at least in the AFC, and they tend to be in the entire NFL as well. And on top of that, your own division just comes across as pretty weak. Buffalo should win the AFC East early.
Dallas Cowboys (5-1): Similar reasoning as with the Bills. The Cowboys are playing really well these days and the division is not doing well. Dallas should have the division title well before the end of the regular season.
Green Bay Packers (5-1): And number 3 in the league. The Packers have gone through the season seriously in a bad way; once the offensive line is intact again and the Defense Jaire Alexander is returned, I expect another version of this team. So to be 5-1 for the moment is definitely a good starting position, and because the Vikings play with fire week after week, I lack the pressure from behind in my own division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1): The honeymoon phase of the Panthers is over, maybe Jameis Winston can still tear something with the Saints. But the Bucs are by far the most talented team in the division and Tom Brady is playing like an MVP candidate. Tampa should be able to play for the number 1 seed at least once until the end.
Baltimore Ravens (5-1): Baltimore has the AFC North top game on the list next week, then the Cincinnati Bengals come to Baltimore. I had already written it on Monday that the Ravens are currently the most dangerous team in the NFL for me, because this offense brings completely different challenges than last year. And the Ravens are still having some failures, especially on the other side of the ball. Baltimore is on my list as division winner.
Los Angeles Rams (5-1): Not everything is going smoothly in LA yet, but on the back of a 5-1 start, problems can be approached a little more relaxed. Stafford had some spectacular passes in their arsenal against the Giants this week, I still lack consistency at Stafford – but the playmakers on both sides of the ball can make the difference in every game. There is no question that I trust the Rams to take over from Arizona at the top of the division by the end of the season. The direct rematch takes place on December 13th in the Monday Night Game.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-2): Baltimore damper, that can happen. Even good players and good teams have bad days. I see the Chargers with Herbert and this offense and a defense that will not be dominated on the ground every week as it was against Cleveland and Baltimore, until the end of the division race with the Chiefs and at least the consolation prize of a wild card.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3): If you look at the playoff picture and forecast the participants, you have to keep the parameters in mind. There will definitely be three wildcard teams in the AFC, and they have to come from somewhere. In the south I don’t see any here, and in the east I tend not to.
So then AFC North and AFC West would negotiate three additional playoff tickets among themselves, and even if the Chiefs don’t win the division in the end – and for now I’m honestly sticking to it, that Kansas City wins the division – for me they are clearly better than the rest of AFC West and also than the teams behind Baltimore in AFC North. Yes, the defense is a problem, but I still clearly have Kansas City with this offense.
Playoff races: who has the best chances behind the top teams?
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2): The Bengals are a serious playoff contender this year! Yes, I am and will remain skeptical about Zac Taylor, this offense is so schematic and one-dimensional – but the players let it work. And the defense is a small positive surprise. I don’t see the Bengals ready for the division title yet, but now I’ve got them with me as a wildcard team.
Cleveland Browns (3-3): The injuries accumulate in Cleveland. Chubb is now missing for the time being, Mayfield dislocated his shoulder again against Arizona and there were also a few failures in the line. Basically, I still see Cleveland with an extremely high floor, with an extremely talented defense and with a coaching staff who will lead this team into the postseason as a wildcard.
In the AFC, the Steelers will still be in the playoff race at the beginning of December. Pittsburgh are 3-3 and have some manageable games over the next few weeks, and the AFC midfield isn’t that strong right now. As a playoff team, I don’t have the Steelers on my list, so I’d rather the one Raiders trust Cleveland or Cincinnati to dispute the third spot. The rest of the season in Las Vegas, however, is a complete surprise bag for me after the Gruden incident.
In the AFC South, I think only the division winners will make it to the playoffs, and while Tennessee still has the higher ceiling in my eyes – the win against Buffalo underpinned that – they kick it Colts increasingly stable and the return of TY Hilton had a noticeable effect. Indianapolis also has the more pleasant rest schedule, which could become the tie-breaker here.
In NFC I have three teams in the running for the last two wildcard tickets. The Saints are my favorite here, followed by the Vikings – and then the question is whether Seattle can stay in the race until Russell Wilson comes back, or whether the 49ers can turn things around. If I had to tap an NFC wildcard team outside of the top group, then it would be New Orleans.
Video Mailbag: Is Carson Wentz a Positive Surprise?
Is Carson Wentz a positive surprise? Are the Cardinals now finally a contender? Is Kirk cousins a top 10 quarterback?
How are they Rescue Lions? and Dolphins coach Brian Flores’ chair wobbles after losing to the Jaguars in London?
The answers can be found in the video section of the mailbag!
OnLy_GB: The Packers are 5-1 without convincing me. Is it more positive to see it because of the failures, or should the record be put into perspective despite the injuries?
For me, the Packers are the classic team that I wouldn’t over-analyze now after the first third of the season. This week 1 bankruptcy against the Saints felt like months ago, and honestly, it has little meaning for me when I am currently evaluating the Packers. Against the Steelers it was certainly tighter than Packers fans would like, and against Detroit the game was open longer than you might have thought in advance.
But the bottom line was that they were well deserved and relatively safe wins, just like the one against the Bears this week. And beating weaker teams without risk is still a quality feature of good teams for me.
The Bears game was now the first time the offensive line had serious problems since Week 1 – Aaron Rodgers had a good game for that and Green Bay is still one of the best teams when it comes to getting yards through the air despite being manageable To create receiving quality outside of Adams. The return of Marquez Valdes-Scantling will also open the offense.
In this respect, with a view to the question, you can clearly shift me into the second category. Rodgers isn’t playing at his last year’s MVP level, but the Packers are in the extended contender circle, they should clearly win their division – and I suspect that Green Bay will become more dangerous in the second half of the season with an increasingly healthy squad.
– .
