On June 24, the US Supreme Court ruling invalidating the federal guarantee of the right to abortion should have been a great victory for the Republican Party. But now that nothing prevents conservative states from limiting the right to abortion, local elected officials have had to answer difficult questions: Should abortion be banned for six weeks? Should it be authorized in case of rape or severe malformation of the fetus? In the fifteen states where draconian restrictions are already in place, elected Republicans must now uphold laws that force women to leave their state to abort in the event of rape or difficult pregnancies.
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However, in a country where 61% of the population believe that abortion must be legal, too intransigent positions on this issue can constitute a political handicap. Debates on the implementation of abortion bans this summer revealed divisions on the right. In South Carolina, a Republican senator in the local assembly, Katrina Shealy, rebelled against her colleagues who wanted to impose a ban without exception in the event of rape, incest or fatal anomaly of the fetus. “ Do you want children to raise children, she said. Children who are likely to experience domestic violence and live in poverty. But you don’t care because you will have finished your job and will forget about it once you are born. “
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Another local Republican politician, Neal Collins, spoke of his distress when he learned that a young woman nearly died of an infection because a doctor hesitated before administering a therapeutic abortion after a miscarriage. These realizations show that strict bans can be unpopular even in conservative states. In early August in Kansas, a state where Donald Trump won 56% of the vote in 2020, 58% of voters voted in favor of the right to abortion in the state constitution. Similar referendums will be held in November in Michigan, Kentucky and Montana. However, these disagreements over abortion are not enough to guarantee a victory for the Democrats in November. According to polls, Republicans should get a majority in the House of Representatives, even if the situation is less favorable for them than a few months ago. Against the backdrop of a slight reduction in inflation, an increase in Joe Biden’s popularity, and the ability for Democrats to mobilize their electorate in defense of the right to abortion, the conservative tide could be more modest, provided that.
Pro-life to be elected
In an effort to find a unifying message, Republican South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham announced on Sept. 13 that she would introduce a bill banning abortion after 15 weeks at the federal level, with no exceptions for severe fetal malformations. This law that would force democratic states to restrict their access to abortion has not garnered enough votes in the Senate so far, but Republicans only need one more seat to have a sufficient majority. However, this maneuver is not unanimous on the right. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell said the decision rests with states, not Congress, and this is also the position of several Republican candidates who prefer to avoid the topic and focus on more promising topics like inflation, immigration and security.
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For their part, the Democrats have addressed the issue, funding hundreds of TV commercials on the dangers of the Republican Party for women’s rights. Aware of being in a delicate position, dozens of Republican candidates have begun to moderate their speech. Blake Masters, who is running for senator in Arizona, has until recently announced on his campaign website that he is ” 100% in favor of life and in favor of a federal law granting fetuses the status of legal persons. Those mentions have since disappeared from his site and he now stands as opposed to abortions only after the first semester. The same goes for House candidates in North Carolina and Minnesota, who have deleted anti-abortion statements from their campaign sites.
In Pennsylvania, candidate for governor Doug Mastriano made a similar breakthrough. In April 2022 he said he was in favor of banning abortion from “conception” and declared ” that a child has the right to life, even if conceived by incest or rape “After the decision of the Supreme Court, he prefers to say that these decisions” are in the hands of the people “and that abortion is only a” distraction “from the real economic problems. These reversals are criticized by the Democrats, but also by the radical wing. pro-life party. ” Let’s find out who is truly pro-life and who is only pro-life to be elected “Launched Brandon Steele, a conservative elected to the West Virginia local assembly. Until recently, anti-abortion speeches could really help an elected Republican get re-elected. It is now a riskier position, especially where elections are tight, now that the impact on women is being felt in some 15 states.
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