Only a handful of men are said to have been behind the decision that Russia should invade Ukraine.
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It is Bloomberg who claim this on Wednesday – with people deep inside the Kremlin as sources.
In the weeks since the invasion began, Putin’s circle of advisers and contacts has been further narrowed by the limited group of hardliners he had regularly consulted before, two sources told Bloomberg.
“The decision to invade was made by Putin and only a handful of hawks,” it said.
Three people are named:
Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense (66)
This is the man who goes on fishing and hunting trips to Siberia with Putin. He has been in the leadership of Moscow since the time of Boris Yeltsin, first as Minister of Disaster for more than 20 years, then Minister of Defense for the last ten years.
Sjojgu received the credit for the successful annexation of Crimea in 2014. Implemented Putin’s order to put the nuclear forces in “combat readiness” at the turn of the month February-March.
Nikolai Patrushev, Leader of Russia’s Security Council (70)
Comes as Putin from St. Petersburg and has known the president since the 1970s. Patrushev succeeded Putin as head of the FSB Security Service. Few have more influence over Putin than Patrushev, who is considered the “chief hawk” of the Russian leadership.
Russia connoisseur Mark Galeotti believes that Patrushev is a more dangerous man than Putin. At the same time, he is 100 percent loyal to Putin.
Valery Gerasimov, Chief of General Staff (66)
Participated in Putin’s first war, the Second Chechnya War (1999–2000), was central to the annexation of Crimea and has had much responsibility for planning the Ukraine war.
Has appeared in public only twice during the war – during a meeting with Putin in late February and at the defense minister’s press conference on March 29. There are many indications that Putin is blaming the FSB leaders – and not Gerasimov – for the failure so far.
Expert: – Sounds reasonable
Russia expert Jakob Tolstrup at the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University tells VG that it sounds likely that these three may have been involved in the decision – and that few were aware of the plans for the invasion zone in advance:
– This sounds reasonable. Most of the Russian establishment expected no invasion. They believed that troop building was to push Ukraine and the West into concessions. But in general, this is how decisions are made in Putin’s Russia: Big decisions are made by few people,
– The problem when so few people make the decisions, is that the consequences are not carefully enough reviewed. They have not considered well enough the advantages and disadvantages of the invasion, says the Russia expert.
– Believed in easy victory
Bloomberg also writes that there is no sign that Vladimir Putin is considering canceling the invasion given the large losses that have come so far. “Alternative views” do not come to the surface either.
– The Russian president will not give in and is not in danger of losing power, Bloomberg concludes.
– I also do not think Russia will stop the invasion, says Russia expert Jakob Tolstrup.
Russia’s offensive in the east of the country is said to have started. This video is to show a Ukrainian counterattack against Russian forces in Mariupol:
At first, Putin seemed shocked that the sanctions were bigger and more multifaceted than expected. He also miscalculated the Ukrainian opposition. I’m sure they thought the Ukrainians would lay down their arms and surrender.
Tolstrup describes that Putin “has overcome the first test” – among other things by effectively crushing all domestic opposition to the war.
End of demonstrations
– It is now a month and a half since we saw anti-war demonstrations on a large scale. Putin also has no serious problems with opposition to the war among his closest. Thus he continues. He is willing to swallow the losses that come and that it will take some time.
Russia expert Tolstrup adds:
– The Russians are now pushing hard to show something until May 9, “Victory Day”. Patriotism is wild that day, and Putin wants something to show for that day. It’s important to him.
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