“Increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty” make up the reality on the planet for 2024, according to Christoph Heusgen, president of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which opened its doors on Friday February 16 in the Bavarian capital and is being held this year for the 60th time.
This year’s Munich Security Conference is taking place in the shadow of US political turmoil and inflammatory statements by Donald Trump, as well as amid conflicts in the Middle East and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
It is recalled that the Munich Security Conference took the decision to exclude Israel from the event’s main stage, due to the ongoing war in Gaza.
Climate change, cyber security, disruption of energy supply chains, artificial intelligence and political polarization were among the issues at the center of the public opinion poll Munich Security Index. For this year’s State of the World report, 12,000 people were asked in the G7 countries as well as in Brazil, India, China, South Africa and Ukraine, in which a special questionnaire was circulated.
Each person was asked to rate a range of issues from 0 to 100 as to whether they pose a risk to his or her country. These issues are then ranked based on people’s scores.
The results of the survey revealed the following trends for 2024:
- Climate change
There is an increase compared to the previous year in terms of how dangerous it is assessed in relation to other issues. It is perceived as the dominant threat in Italy, South Africa and Brazil, while in the USA and China it is ranked quite low. There is also an intergenerational gap, with those over 70 perceiving the issue as much more important than young adults (18-24).
- Technological developments
Artificial intelligence is a major concern, although it ranks as less important than cyber-attacks, which in the UK are rated as the third most important threat to the country. Regarding all the countries included in the survey, cyber attacks are in 4th place.
It is worth noting that the countries belonging to the G7 group appear significantly more worried about possible cyber attacks, in contrast to the countries belonging to the BICS group.
- Misinformation
In 2024, elections will be held in over 50 countries of the world, including the USA, the EU and the UK. According to the report, there is increased concern about possible attempts to misinform the electorate. In fact, it is ranked as the sixth most important threat, having climbed six places in the relevant list compared to the previous year.
- Immigration
Mass migration, whether as a result of wars or as a result of climate change, is rated as the 7th most serious threat globally, up from 16th place in 2022.
In Germany, mass immigration is seen as the biggest threat to the country. In France it is in second place following Islamic terrorism. At the same time, in these countries there is an increased concern about the possibility of radical changes in their culture.
- Terrorism
In addition to Europe, strong concern about the phenomenon is also observed in the US and Canada.
In France, there is a significant intergenerational difference, as those over the age of 65 are more worried about the possibility of a terrorist attack than those under 25.
- Russia and China
Russian expansionism seems to be of less concern than last year, while it should be noted that for China, India and South Africa, Russia is evaluated more as an ally than as an enemy.
For five of the seven G7 countries, there is a more favorable view of China than in 2022. However, it is now rated as the 11th most important threat to international standing, overtaking Russia which is 14th (last year it was 7th) .
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