Final spurt of the election campaign in the USA These are the paths to victory for Harris and Trump
By Roland Peters and Kevin Schulte October 8, 2024, 12:05 p.m. Listen to article
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On November 5th, one month from now, either Donald Trump will be elected US President for the second time or, with Kamala Harris, a woman will reach the highest office in the United States for the first time. There is no favorite, but there are more or less clear routes to victory.
Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? The question of whether the 45th US President will also be the 47th or whether the incumbent Vice President will make history as the first woman in the White House will be decided on Tuesday in four weeks. Reason enough to provide an overview of the current status of the US election campaign.
As of now, is there a favorite to win?
No, most national polls see Kamala Harris stable around two percentage points ahead of Donald Trump. But because of the unique electoral system in the United States, this is secondary and no more than a weak indicator. The outcome of the election is currently completely open. The last two presidential elections in particular show how deceptive national surveys can be. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was almost five percentage points ahead of Trump exactly one month before Election Day. On election day, she won more votes nationwide than her opponent, but Donald Trump won more voters and that alone is crucial. Trump almost did it again in 2020. At that time, he was 8.5 percentage points behind Joe Biden in national polls a month before the election. However, the election was much closer than expected; Biden only prevailed after a marathon count that lasted for days.
Was it wise to send Kamala Harris into the Democratic race instead of allowing an open battle for candidates within the Democratic Party?
Most likely yes. Harris is better known as vice president than other potential candidates would have been. This is an important factor when there is not much time left until the election date. An open fight for the candidacy would probably have stirred up too much dust within the party. It would have been difficult to go into the election united after that.
What’s in favor of Kamala Harris right now?
Since there is no favorite, it is more of a soft factor. What works in Harris’ favor is that she paints a positive picture of the United States. She speaks of the land of opportunities, an “opportunity economy”. This is very close to the “American Dream”. Trump is approaching the election campaign exactly the other way around. He puts the negative in the foreground, shows what the USA has lost and what he would get back. Harris hopes that her new American dream will have a stronger impact than Trump’s fear-mongering of Democrats who supposedly want to plunge the United States into socialism.
What speaks for Donald Trump at the moment?
Most people in the USA know exactly what Trump stands for. This helps Trump to mobilize his own voters. Harris remains more vague than her opponent on some issues. The Democrats also fear that Trump will pull an ace up his sleeve in the final stages of the election campaign. A lot can happen in four weeks, but compared to a US presidential election campaign, that feels like an eternity. Eight years ago it was Hillary Clinton’s professional messages via the private mail server, four years ago Biden’s son Hunter’s “laptop from hell” became a problem for the Democrats. It is possible that this time too, dirt will be thrown shortly before the election.
Which states will decide the election?
Seven so-called “swing states” are expected to make the difference. Nevada and Arizona in the southwestern USA. Georgia and North Carolina in the southeast, the so-called Rust Belt with the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the northeast. In all other states it seems that it has already been decided before election day which candidate will win the race. Among the contested “battleground states,” Pennsylvania is the most exciting. On the one hand, the state south of New York is the “most valuable” with its 19 electoral votes. On the other hand, the US portal “Five Thirty Eight” has calculated that, statistically speaking, Pennsylvania decides the election in 18 out of 100 cases. A remarkably high value considering there are 50 states. Then come Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia, which decide the election in 12 out of 100 cases.
Which path to the presidency is “easiest” for Kamala Harris?
If Harris manages to win the entire Rust Belt, just like Joe Biden, she is almost guaranteed the presidency. If there are no surprises elsewhere, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are enough for exactly the required majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College. If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, her only chance is to win Georgia or North Carolina. If she succeeds, it would ultimately come down to Arizona or Nevada.
What is the “easiest” route to the presidency for Donald Trump?
If Trump wins the same states as he did in 2020, the Republican candidate would have 235 voters. That would include embattled North Carolina. Trump has to win a state in the Rust Belt in any scenario anyway. If the 78-year-old manages to win in Pennsylvania, the majority in Georgia would be enough for him to get back into the White House. If Trump doesn’t win Pennsylvania but wins Michigan, he would need Arizona or Nevada in addition to Georgia. If Trump only wins Wisconsin, not only Georgia but also Arizona would be a “must win” for Trump.
What is important in the final sprint of the election campaign?
The most important thing for both parties will be to mobilize their voters. It’s about convincing those who are already leaning towards one of the two parties to actually go to the polls. However, there are hardly any real swing voters in the USA; they make up a maximum of three percent of those eligible to vote. In addition, in the final spurt it will be important to simply not make any more mistakes. Just don’t stumble and don’t offer too much attack on sensitive topics for your own clientele – that’s the credo on both sides.
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