We are now in the tenth day of the war, and there are no signs that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians have plans to lay down their arms.
But according to several experts TV 2 has spoken to, things indicate that the Russians are becoming more and more desperate.
– Lots of weapons are used, and they are not good at hitting precisely. They just shoot. Whether they hit or miss, they do not care so much. Ammunition consumption is high, and it costs money, says Per Erik Solli to TV 2.
He is a military adviser at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy, and has followed a number of wars closely over the years.
– The Ukrainian will to defend is tough. When Putin thought he was going to coerce the Ukrainians quickly, he was very wrong, says Per Erik Solli.
– CHECK POST: A Ukrainian official monitors those driving through Kyiv at a checkpoint in the city. The photo was taken on March 3 this year. Photo: Mykola Tymchenko / Reuters
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– The situation is getting worse
He thinks this is bad news for Russia.
– They spend a lot of money on the invasion of Ukraine, at the same time the economic sanctions hit very hard. The longer this goes on, the worse it will be for the Russians, says Solli.
By not giving up, and by receiving military support from other countries, Solli believes that the Ukrainians can last a long time.
– THE ATTACK: A 21-year-old man is standing in the town of Stoyanka west of the capital Kyiv, witnessing the war. The photo was taken on March 4 this year. Photo: Aris Messinis / AFP
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– The Russians do not have inexhaustible stockpiles of weapons, and certainly not of the most advanced weapons. With each passing day, Russia’s situation is getting worse both militarily and politically, says the military adviser.
Chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, Tor Bukkvoll, believes that Russians can also face challenges in maintaining motivation.
– We do not know for sure, but it may seem as if combat morale is limited in parts of the Russian forces. They have also struggled with resupply and logistics, says Bukkvoll to TV 2.
– REFUGEES: Residents of the town of Irpin are fleeing the flames after the house behind them was hit by a Russian attack. The photo was taken on March 4 this year. Photo: Aris Messinis / AFP
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It is the Russians who have moved forward, explains Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen, head teacher of strategic communication at the Norwegian Defense College.
– But there is a long way to go, it is a very long way to go. It is very far from taking the big cities in Eastern Ukraine, says Hågen Karlsen to TV 2.
Plan A and B
– The Russian strategy seems to have changed somewhat from the initial phase with fast and mobile forces, to this has become more and more a city war, says Tom Røseth, associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College to TV 2.
Now that the war is in its tenth day, Bukkvoll questions whether Putin has made a plan for this part of the war.
– He had probably expected that this would go very fast. But now it is still a question of how much he has actually planned phase two, says Bukkvoll.
Solli believes that the Russians had a plan A and a plan B in advance.
– Plan A was that Ukraine and the West would agree to the demands they had. Plan B was to attack Ukraine through a lightning attack.
But according to the military adviser, both of these plans have failed.
– HELPER: Ukrainian forces lift a pram after crossing the Irpin River. They follow a temporary path, which has been created after Russian forces destroyed the bridge that used to be there. The photo was taken on March 5 this year. Photo: Vadim Ghirda / AP
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– They have not thought through the scenario we are in now. The Ukrainians refuse to surrender, and the whole world turns against them, says Solli.
– Is it not naive of the Russians to believe that the invasion would not have consequences?
– Many of those who are experts on Russia say that Putin’s advisers tell him what he wants to hear. Those who come up with alternative advice and analyzes are poorly received, and apparently make Putin angry, says Solli.
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